Instant Reaction: Reds Take Step in Right Direction, Acquire Gavin Lux from Dodgers

Lux was fantastic offensively in the second half of the 2024 season.
Oct 29, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux (9) slides into second with a double during the second inning in game four of the 2024 MLB World Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Oct 29, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux (9) slides into second with a double during the second inning in game four of the 2024 MLB World Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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The Reds have made another notable offseason move, trading their 2024 3rd-round draft pick, Mike Sirota, and a competitive balance pick to the Dodgers in exchange for infielder Gavin Lux.

Lux's Second-Half Performance and Potential

Lux has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career, and his track record at Great American Ball Park provides even more reason for optimism. While his sample size in Cincinnati is limited, Lux has performed well in those opportunities, suggesting that the hitter-friendly environment of GABP could boost his production.

The 2024 season seemed to be a turning point for Lux. Over the summer months, he truly came into his own:

  • July OPS: .937 with four home runs
  • August OPS: .884 with four home runs

In the second half of 2024, Lux’s overall numbers were stellar:

  • Slash Line: .304/.390/.508
  • wRC+: 152
  • fWAR: 2.0
  • Barrel Rate: 10%

These metrics indicate that Lux is evolving into a reliable offensive contributor. For a player once ranked as the Dodgers’ top prospect in 2020, the Reds are banking on his continued growth and potential.

Replacing Jonathan India

One of the more intriguing aspects of this trade is Lux’s likely role as a replacement for Jonathan India. Not only does Lux fill a similar role at a significantly lower price point ($2.8 million compared to India’s $5.5 million), but his second-half numbers suggest he could exceed India’s recent production. This swap allows the Reds to allocate resources elsewhere while maintaining offensive output in the infield.

It’s worth noting that Lux struggled against left-handed pitching in 2024, with a slash line of .152/.220/.174 over 46 at-bats. This is a clear area for improvement, but the Reds can manage his exposure to lefties by utilizing platoon options or strategic matchups.

The Reds Got Better Offensively, But It's Just One Step

The Reds acquired a proven player with a couple of years of team control left without parting with any of their top prospects. Lux’s arrival improves the team offensively and provides flexibility in their infield plans. While this move alone doesn’t completely fill the Reds’ needs, it’s a step in the right direction.

What Now?

Just because the Reds made a move to bolster their lineup doesn't mean they should be done. If the Reds are serious about being contenders in 2025, they should still look to acquire a power-hitting outfielder via the trade market or free agency.

Overall, this trade feels like a win for the Reds. The Reds got better offensively and didn't have to give up the farm.

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