Jake Fraley, Will Benson, or Jesse Winker: Breaking Down the Best Choice for the Future

The Reds need their outfield to take a step forward in 2025.

Greg Kuffner | Dec 5, 2024

Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jake Fraley (27) runs to third base in the fifth inning of a MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati. Braves won 7-1. / Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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On Tuesday a report surfaced that the Reds and Jesse Winker have "mutual interest" in a reunion, according to Mark C. Healey.

I set out to compare Jesse Winker to the current Reds outfielders, Jake Fraley and Will Benson, to see how they stack up against each other.

Comparing the 2022-2024 seasons via Stathead Baseball / Stathead Baseball

Over the last three seasons, Fraley emerged as the most consistent offensive contributor. His .265 batting average, .764 OPS, and 106 OPS+ demonstrate his ability to provide above-average offense, along with solid power (32 HRs) and speed (45 SBs).

Benson has struggled with batting average (.223) and on-base percentage (.311), but he compensates with decent power and speed, tallying 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases. Benson's numbers dramatically declined after he struggled in the 2024 season, hitting just .187 with an OPS of .650.

Winker boasts the best on-base skills (.346 OBP), but he has never hit for a ton of power (.354 SLG) and has an OPS of just .700.

The defensive metrics also give Fraley the edge. Over the past three seasons, Fraley has 0 outs above average. Though not anything to brag about, it is certainly better than Benson's -6 OAA and Winker's -21 OAA. Winker is nearly unplayable in the outfield at this stage of his career.

You could make an argument that all three players are platoon bats. Winker has struggled all throughout his career with an OPS of .661 against left-handed pitching. His OPS goes up to .841 against right-handers.

Benson has been abysmal against left-handed pitching with a .461 OPS in 121 plate appearances. His OPS goes up to .772 against right-handers.

Fraley, like both Benson and Winker, has also struggled mightily against left-handers, with an OPS of .504 compared to an OPS of .786 against right-handers.

Over the last three seasons, Fraley also leads the group with a 1.9 WAR compared to Benson's -0.1 and Winker's 1.0.

In my mind, Fraley is the clear choice for this Reds team. He's already under contract, and Winker's slight advantage against right-handed pitching is not enough to make a noticeable difference. Benson's upside excites you, but his 2024 struggles were real, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him start the season in Triple-A Louisville to regain his confidence.

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