Slumping Redlegs: Analyzing Cincinnati Reds' Offensive Struggles

A tough week offensively.

Mar 31, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jake Fraley (27) bats against the Texas Rangers in the second inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

It's been a tough opening week for the Cincinnati Reds offense. They have scored 24 runs on the season, but 14 of those came in one game. In the other five games, they have scored 4, 3, 3, 0, and 0.

Let's break down what has went wrong for the offense thus far.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain are carrying the offense, but when they struggle, the offense has been non-existent.

Where is the Rest of the Offense?

The bottom of the order has been a huge black hole for the Reds.

Jake Fraley is slashing .111/.111/.111. He has an average exit velocity of 80.3 mph, which is eight mph below the league average.

Spencer Steer is slashing .067/..067/.067.

Jeimer Candelario is slashing .190/.261/.190.

Between the three of them, they have zero extra-base hits and have drawn just two walks. All three of these players are veterans who were expected to bring consistency to the Cincinnati offense.

To be fair, Steer is dealing with a shoulder injury that is preventing him from playing the field, but if he is going to struggle like this, it's worth asking the question if he should be on the injured list instead of on the active roster.

No Walks. No Power.

When a team slumps, the hope is that they can find other ways to get on base, like drawing a walk. Jacob Hurtubise is the only player with a double-digit walk rate, and he has only had four plate appearances on the season.

The Reds have taken just 11 walks all season long, which ranks second-to-last in Major League Baseball. To put that in perspective, the Chicago Cubs rank first with 43 walks.

De La Cruz, McLain, TJ Friedl, Fraley, Steer, Blake Dunn, Austin Wynns, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all have walk rates of five percent or less.

Outside of De La Cruz, McLain, and Encarnacion-Strand, the Reds are hitting for no power.

They have 12 extra-base hits as a team on the season. De La Cruz. McLain, and Encarnacion-Strand have 10 of those 12. Gavin Lux has added a double and Wynns has a home run.

Bad Luck?

Sometimes, when you dig into the numbers in a bad stretch, you'll find the team has had some bad luck. That doesn't seem to be the case here.

Fraley, Steer, and Candelario all have a xwOBA that is worse than their wOBA, which point to it's poor contact quality and not bad luck.

"xwOBA is more indicative of a player's skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation," MLB.com wrote. "Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play."

Fraley has a wOBA of .111, while his xwOBA is .098. Candelario's wOBA is .190 and is xwOBA is .213. Steer's wOBA is .067 and his xwOBA is .059.

The Reds simply aren't hitting the ball hard. Their 35.2% hard-hit rate ranks 26th in MLB, and their 88.3 mph average exit velocity sits at just 22nd. Yes, even with Elly De La Cruz inflating those numbers with his elite bat speed.

Sure, the Reds have faced some tough pitchers, but the lack of power, lack of walks, and lack of production might point to a deeper issue with their offensive approach.

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