The Cincinnati Reds Should Abandon the Contact Play Following Friday Night's Loss

The numbers and recent trends don’t favor the Reds consistently running the contact play

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) dives into first as Detroit Tigers third baseman Gio Urshela (13) misses the out by stepping off the bag in the ninth inning of the MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Detroit Tigers at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Friday, July 5, 2024. / © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Cincinnati Reds were snake bitten by the contact play on Friday night as the potential game-tying run was thrown out at home in their 5-4 loss to the Tigers. The Reds should abandon this strategy moving forward. 

The numbers don’t support the Reds continuing reliance on this play. This is something I had to compile myself as there really isn’t a statistic for this one specific play in MLB games. 

I combed through the MLB film room for situations of less than two outs and a runner on third for the Reds. I then limited my findings to what happened when the Reds hit a ground ball on the infield, or the “contact play” (I love MLB Film Room).

The Reds have scored a run 12 times in the 21 total times they’ve attempted this scenario. Most came in the first month of the season. Every team since then has made sure to first look to throw home on the Reds before even considering going to first base.

Due to other teams adjusting, the Reds have been thrown out attempting this play eight times, including once when the runner at third was doubled up on a line drive to the shortstop. 

There has been one time, and it was Elly De La Cruz that did this, where the runner saw that he wouldn’t score on the ground ball and slid back into third base under the tag. Only once did a Red attempt to return to third base when they saw the ball was not hit well enough to lead to a run. 

Now you may be saying “if the Reds have scored the majority of the time, shouldn’t they continue this?” The problem with any “yes” answer is the Reds have been thrown out four of the last five times they've ran the contact play.

Opposing teams have the scouting report on the Reds. If there is a runner on third base and you get a ground ball in the infield, throw the ball home before you think about throwing it to first base. 

Most of the Reds success on the “contact play” came early in the season when the book was not out on them. Now other teams have the scouting report. It’s time for the Reds to adjust their philosophy when it comes to the “contact play.”

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