Down on the Farm First Half Recap: Cincinnati Reds' Top Prospect Rhett Lowder

Rhett Lowder was the Cincinnati Reds first-round draft pick in 2023.

Greg Kuffner | Jul 19, 2024

Mar 20, 2024; Goodyear, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Rhett Lowder against the Texas Rangers during a spring training baseball game at Goodyear Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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Cincinnati Reds

The second half of the season kicks off on Friday night in both Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball.

The Cincinnati Reds selected Rhett Lowder with the seventh overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.

Let's take a look at how he has done so far this season.

Lowder, the Reds' highly touted pitching prospect, has had an eventful and promising start to his 2024 season. Beginning the year with the Dayton Dragons in High-A, Lowder quickly showcased his exceptional talent and earned a promotion to Double-A with the Chattanooga Lookouts.

High-A Performance with the Dayton Dragons

In his five starts for the Dayton Dragons, Lowder was nothing short of spectacular. Over 25 1/3 innings, he posted impressive numbers that underscored his potential as a future major league starter:

Strikeout Rate (K/9):10.30
Walk Rate (BB/9): 2.13
Earned Run Average (ERA): 2.49
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 3.17
WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched): 0.95
Batting Average Against (BAA): .191

Lowder's ability to miss bats and limit walks was evident, and his 2.49 ERA demonstrated his effectiveness at keeping runs off the board. His .191 BAA indicated that opposing hitters struggled to make solid contact, further highlighted by his WHIP of just 0.95. These dominant numbers earned him a quick promotion up to Double-A Chattanooga.

Double-A Challenges with the Chattanooga Lookouts

Upon his promotion to the Chattanooga Lookouts, Lowder faced tougher competition and experienced some growing pains. In 11 games his statistics reflected the adjustment period common for many young pitchers moving up the ranks:

Strikeout Rate (K/9): 9.31
Walk Rate (BB/9): 2.05
Earned Run Average (ERA): 6.52
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 3.80
WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched): 1.57
Batting Average Against (BAA): .316

While Lowder's strikeout and walk rates remained strong, his ERA ballooned to 6.52, and opposing hitters had a much easier time reaching base, as evidenced by his .316 BAA and 1.57 WHIP. These numbers suggest that while Lowder continued to exhibit his strikeout potential and control, he faced challenges with consistency and limiting hits.

Outlook for the Rest of the Season

Lowder's first half of the season has been a tale of two levels. His dominance in High-A showed why he is considered one of the Reds' top prospects, and his struggles in Double-A are a natural part of his development as he adjusts to more advanced hitters. With his solid strikeout and walk rates, there is reason to believe that Lowder will make the necessary adjustments and find greater success as he gains more experience at the Double-A level.

As the season progresses, keeping an eye on Lowder's ability to refine his approach and improve his consistency will be key indicators of his readiness for future promotions and his potential impact on the Cincinnati Reds' major league roster.

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