Jonathan India Might be Struggling, But There Are Signs That a Breakout is Coming

India's plate discipline is unmatched.

Apr 13, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cincinnati Reds designated hitter Jonathan India (6) slides / Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds lead-off hitter has had a low batting average through the first 18 games of the season. Is Jonathan India a candidate to be moved down in the betting order?

There are actually signs that he’s poised for a breakout.

India’s .159 batting average and .222 slugging would seem to point to a guy who is overmatched at the plate, but let's take a closer look:

No player has swung at fewer pitches than India as his swing percentage is 32.1%, according to baseball reference. He is also putting pitches into play only 22.8% of the time. Then you figure in his batting average on balls in play of .213 (league average is .299) and it’s easy to see why his production is so low. He’s getting extremely unlucky.

He also is very patient, almost to a fault. It has led to walks and not swinging at bad pitches. He has one of the lowest chase rates in all of MLB. He also has a crazy high rate of strikes looking at 42.7%. All of this is to say he is laying a disciplined base at the plate and he is going to breakout soon.

When you combine his patience and his lack of luck with the pitches he hits into play, and then add in the fact Baseball Savant has his expected batting average at .280, India is ready to breakout. It could happen this weekend.

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