Identifying a Potential Outfield Free Agent the Cincinnati Reds Could Target

Tyler O'Neil hit 31 home runs in 2024.

Greg Kuffner | 8 Hours Ago

Sep 11, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Tyler O'Neill (17) his a three run home run to win the game against the Baltimore Orioles in ten innings at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images / David Butler II-Imagn Images

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Cincinnati Reds

The Reds should be actively looking for an outfield bat in the offseason. Tyler O'Neil could be someone the Reds look to target through free agency.

Let's dive into the pros and cons of signing O'Neil.

Pros

Adding a Power Bat

The Reds were 19th in all of Major League Baseball with 174 home runs in 2024. Considering Great American Ball Park is known for being a hitter's park and known for surrendering home runs, 19th is subpar.

O'Neil is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. He slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs and a wRC+ of 131 with Boston in 2024. Adding his power to the middle of the lineup could be a big upgrade for the Reds.

Affordable

MLB Trade Rumors projects O"Neil to sign for three years, $42 million. That would be significantly less than what other power bats like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez will sign for.

With the Reds being a small market team, it's easier to sign these kinds of deals than to get into bidding wars on big-time free agents.

Age

O'Neil is still just 29 years old and younger than other guys on the market, like Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, and Teoscar Hernandez.

With O'Neil, you wouldn't have to worry about him being in decline through the final years of his contract.

Cons

Consistency

O'Neil, much like Jurickson Profar, who we highlighted last week, has been inconsistent throughout his career.

In seven seasons between the Cardinals and Red Sox, O'Neil has had a wRC+ over 100 in just three of those seasons. In 2023, he had a wRC+ of 97 and in 2022, his wRC+ was 99.

Platoon Bat?

In 2024, O'Neil slashed just .209/.290/.403 in 105 at-bats against right-handed pitching compared to .313/.430/.750 against left-handed pitching.

O'Neil has always crushed left-handed pitching and is someone you could platoon with Jake Fraley, but do the Reds want to spend that type of money on a platoon bat?

It's worth noting that O'Neil's 2024 numbers against right-handed pitching were well below his career average. His career OPS against right-handed pitching is .751 compared to .932 against left-handed pitching.

Defensive Struggles

The Reds struggled defensively in 2024 and O'Neil isn't known for his defensive ability. In 95 games in the outfield for Boston, the 29-year-old ranked 25th out of 39 left fielders with -4 outs above average.

Is O'Neil's power bat enough to cover up his defensive struggles?

Strikeouts

The Reds struck out the 9th most among all MLB teams in 2024. O'Neil is another guy who strikes out a lot.

In 2024, O'Neil struck out 159 times in 113 games. In 2023, he struck out 67 times in 72 games. In 2022, he struck out 103 times in 96 games.

The Reds' interest in signing O'Neill might hinge on whether they prioritize minimizing strikeouts and maintaining contact or lean toward adding more power to their lineup.

My Thoughts

O'Neil's 2024 splits scare me, but I do get excited about bringing a guy into Great American Ball Park who hit 31 home runs last season.

If the Reds are going to shell out $40 million plus, I would prefer it be to someone who can play every day. If O'Neil could get back to his career numbers against right-handed pitching and prove his 2024 numbers against right-handers was just a fluke, he could be a great addition.

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