Reds 2025 ERA+ Projection Among League's Lowest

Reds pitching was 7th in all of Major League Baseball last season with an fWAR of 17.

Greg Kuffner | Jan 4, 2025

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene (21) collects a new ball after giving up a solo home run to Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz (15) in the first inning of the MLB National League Game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. The Pirates led 1-0 after four innings. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds aim to build upon their promising young core and push for playoff contention in 2025, the pitching staff faces a stark projection. According to Thomas Nestico of TJStats, the Reds are projected to rank 28th in the league in ERA+, with a score of 93. This suggests their pitching is expected to be 7% worse than the league average.

Nestico explained his methodology, which relied on Steamer Projections from Fangraphs, including free agents yet to sign with teams. "I then calculated the weighted average ERA by team, using IP as the weights," Nestico wrote. "I then normalized it by dividing by Steamers weighted average ERA for all players."

ERA+ is a metric that adjusts a pitcher's ERA for league-wide performance and environmental factors like ballparks and opponents. A score of 100 represents the league average, with higher numbers indicating better-than-average performance. A score of 93 places the Reds near the bottom of the league, reflecting significant concerns about their pitching depth and effectiveness.

Injuries to key starters like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott over the past couple of seasons may partly explain the modest projections for the Reds' pitching staff in 2025. While the young arms of Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder offer promise, their potential impact may take time to fully materialize. The addition of veterans Nick Martinez and Brady Singer could provide much-needed stability and leadership, helping to bolster the rotation and offset the uncertainty surrounding the team’s younger pitchers.

Still, these projections may come as a surprise to many, as the Reds’ staff feels stronger on paper than the numbers suggest, leaving hope that they may outperform expectations.