Three Starting Pitchers the Cincinnati Reds Could Target in Free Agency

The Reds should sign a prolific starting pitcher this winter.

The Cincinnati Reds were a fun team, but a flawed one in 2023. No flaw more great than their starting pitching. 

Health can do most of the fixing, but adding one more reinforcement will help make this a playoff rotation.

The Reds will look to make a dramatic flip in their production from the starting rotation. They’re 5.43 ERA was the third-worst in Major League Baseball last season. 

Cincinnati averaged less than five innings per start and had the seventh-highest walk rate in the league. Also, it would be nice to add a starter that can force hitters to ground out, especially with Great American Ballpark being a launching pad for home runs. 

The Reds had the third-lowest ground ball rate in the majors last season.

Their projected payroll, including potential arbitration raises, still falls under $50 million. Given the Reds increase in revenue that most likely occurred through ticket sales increases and TV audience growth, they should have enough capital to work with to bring in a substantial increase in talent for the rotation. 

Here are a few starting options that they could target in free agency:

Sonny Gray, RHP, Twins

© Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Potential Contract $20.3 Million AAV (Spotrac.com)

A reunion could be in order. Gray put together a career year with the Twins. 

He posted a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings and posted a 7.3% walk rate. He may have gotten slightly lucky when it came to limiting home runs—only 5% of the fly balls he allowed cleared the wall. His career average is 11%. Regardless, it was a very good year for Gray and adding him to the roster would give the rotation a major boost.

Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Rangers

© Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Potential Contract $18.4 Million AAV (Spotrac.com)

Montgomery is coming off his third-straight season of 30 or more starts. Like Gray, he put together a career year with his lowest ERA at 3.20. He also amassed over four wins above replacement. 

H held a 5.1% walk rate in 2022, before posting a 6.2% walk rate last season. Nick Lodolo was the only Reds pitcher that started multiple games and sported a comparable walk rate in 2023. Montgomery may be a very hot commodity, though, given his postseason success for the Rangers.

Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Potential Contract $18.1 Million AAV (Spotrac.com)

Wacha had a pretty good season for the Padres, posting a 3.22 ERA in 24 starts. 

He’s not a super high strikeout guy, but was efficient at limiting walks. The interesting part about Wacha is the perceived value from Spotrac. 

For the money it would cost to sign him, I’d much rather see the Reds go get Montgomery. Regardless, Wacha would be an upgrade to the starting rotation.

The biggest reason the Reds should add a starter is because you cannot bet on your starting pitching staff remaining healthy all season long. 

They've experienced major injuries to key starters over the past two seasons, including Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Lodolo. All three guys missed at least a month due to injury

The rotation of Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson sounds good, but health is a major question mark.

If the Reds add a starting pitcher, through free agency or a trade, then they will be able to count on their starting pitcher depth. Right now it is tenuous at best. 

There’s talent, but there are plenty of question marks. Betting on everyone to get healthy and stay healthy for an entire season is a bad bet. 

The Reds should add a prolific starting pitcher this winter.

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