Time to Breakout? Tyler Stephenson is Red Hot for the Cincinnati Reds

Don't look now, but the Stephenson breakout might be happening.

Mar 31, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson (37) during the third / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds have had high hopes for their catcher of the future, Tyler Stephenson. To this point in his career, his seasons have either been marked by injuries or ineffectiveness. Recent performances show signs of a a breakout, though, which should have Reds fans buzzing.

Stephenson seemed to be plagued by his surgically repaired collarbone last year, as his power was non-existent. He played the most games of his career, but posted a .378 slugging percentage. Add on to that his defensive inefficiencies last year and some may have already jumped ship on the idea of him ever living up to the hype. 

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, though. Especially when it comes to players careers.

After beginning the season 3-for-17 in his first seven games, Stephenson is on a five-game hitting streak. More importantly, half of his hits during this five game stretch have been for extra bases, including one home run. Stephenson has brought his average exit velocity up from a paltry 85 MPH (3 MPH below the league average hitter) to 91.5  (3 MPH above the league average hitter). He scored a line drive that found an outfielder’s glove in Sunday’s game at 107 MPH. The quality of contact is key.

Last year, Stephenson averaged 89.4 MPH on the exit velocity and had a barrel rate of 7.6%. This year, albeit in a small sample size, he has improved the barrel rate to 22% and has a hard hit rate (balls hit faster than 95 MPH) of 55%! Because of this, Statcast says he’s been unlucky. His expected batting average is .277 and his expected slugging is .499. Compare that expected slugging to the numbers he has had in years past, Statcast had his xSLG at less than .400 for every season.

It’s still early, but the performances he is putting together right now warrant your attention. Don't look now, but Stephenson's breakout might've started.

-----

Be sure to keep it locked on Inside the Reds, all the time!

Follow Inside the Reds on Twitter/X: @InsideTheReds

Like Our Facebook Page

Subscribe and follow the ONLY Daily Reds Podcast

Follow on Instagram