Impact Free Agent Pitcher 'Likely' To Reject Royals' Qualifying Offer

Is Kansas City content to lose one of its most reliable starters?

Jul 30, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A Kansas City Royals hat and glove in the dugout during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Starting pitching has been the surprise strength of the 2024 Kansas City Royals. How will that impact their rotation decisions moving into 2025?

A year after Kansas City's starting pitching was dreadful enough to contribute to a 106-loss season, it has rebounded in style. Free agent acquisitions, trade pieces, and resurgent young arms have all combined to put the Royals among the top starting rotations in Major League Baseball.

Alas, as if often the case in professional sports, it becomes more expensive to keep a productive roster together from one season to the next. The Royals have a key decision upcoming involving one of their most reliable starters.

33-year-old Michael Wacha has a $16 million player option for 2025 that he is likely to decline, and the Royals must decide whether to tender him a qualifying offer, which only they can do and only constitutes a one-year deal. It's an expensive year, though, with projections estimating it will cost roughly $22 million this season.

On Friday, Jon Becker of Fangraphs predicted that the Royals will tender Wacha the qualifying offer, and that Wacha will reject it in favor of pursuing a longer-term contract.

"On the one hand, this version of Wacha is worth $22.1 million; on the other, the injury concerns don’t just go away just because he’s been mostly healthy this year," Becker said.

"As unlikely as Wacha would be to accept, the Royals might also prefer to eliminate any chance that he’d do so and instead allocate that money to lengthen their lineup. Having a rotation anchored by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo would make losing Wacha an easier pill to swallow."

Quietly, Wacha has become one of the winningest pitchers in MLB the past three seasons. He went 11-2 with the Boston Red Sox in 2022, 14-4 with the San Diego Padres in 2023, and is now 12-7 with the Royals in 2024. His ERA is a sparkling 3.29 during the three-year stretch.

Multi-year deals for pitchers in their mid-30s are always a risk, though, and the Royals would get a draft pick in return, which could be akin to a late first-round pick if Wacha signs for at least $50 million.

It's always hard to let a productive current player walk away, though. The Royals may be better off in the long run if Wacha signs elsewhere, but he's been so good this season that it's worth at least trying to convince him to stay.

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