Royals’ Delay on Re-Signing Zack Greinke Isn’t Concerning

Kansas City and Greinke are both taking their time before making a decision this offseason.

Less than two months ago, it was reported (and subsequently covered here) that not only was Zack Greinke expected to return to baseball for yet another season, but that the Kansas City Royals had the inside edge on bringing him back to do so. With several weeks of MLB free agency in the books, however, neither side has made any publicly-known progress on a contract for 2023.

Despite that lack of progress, the delays from both Greinke and Kansas City should be far from concerning.

Late last week, Jon Heyman of the New York Post published an article reporting some tidbits about baseball's offseason happenings. He noted that while the Royals were close on re-signing Greinke at one point, the recent influx of starting pitchers being signed to premium contracts has made that process take longer. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also noted that the Royals are making it a goal to re-sign Greinke, adding his own insight on why that reunion has yet to occur:

What’s the delay? Uh, have you noticed the eruption in the starting-pitching market? Greinke, 39, has earned more than $330 million in his career, but will not want to sign for less than he believes he is worth. He earned $13 million last season. A return to the Royals on a relatively low base salary with significant incentives still seems the most likely outcome.

The number of starting pitchers who have been signed to those aforementioned big-money deals is legitimate. Heck, there's even a crop of starters that has signed for lower-tier money but still benefitted from the inflated market. Carlos Rodón (six years, $162 million), Ross Stripling (2/$25M), Chris Bassitt (3/$63M), Sean Manaea (2/$25M), José Quintana (2/$26M), Jameson Taillon (4/$68M), Taijuan Walker (4/$72M) and others all make the Greinke market more difficult for the Royals to compete with or judge. If the future Hall of Famer was worth $13M an offseason ago, what's he worth now?

There's also very little incentive for Greinke to put pen to paper at this very moment. He's 39 years old and will soon be playing in his 20th MLB season. He's been through the process of free agency and negotiating a contract with a team multiple times before. He has a pulse for where he's at in both his career and his life. He also has an understanding of the dynamics of the market. If holding out for a bit will earn him more money, why not wait a while? It's not as if the Royals will rush to replace him in the rotation. He has leverage and has earned the right to be patient. 

Last offseason, Greinke didn't sign with Kansas City until mid-March despite coming off a season that showed he could still contribute to winning baseball. Now, he's coming off a 2022 campaign that saw him put up a 3.68 ERA and 2.6 Wins Above Replacement. The Royals are a young team with plenty to sort out in regards to who does or doesn't belong in their rotation in 2023, but Greinke's spot as a stabilizing force isn't going anywhere.

Until there's a report indicating that the Royals aren't in on Greinke or saying he isn't interested in returning, there's nothing to worry about. Executive vice president of baseball operations and general manager J.J. Picollo has made it clear that Kansas City is going to be a late player in this year's free agent market, and Greinke has already exercised a relaxed approach to free agency in the past. Both sides taking their time is noteworthy, but it isn't concerning.

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