What Is Royals' Magic Number? Breaking Down Suddenly-Dramatic AL Wild Card Race
Only a week ago, the Kansas City Royals were starting to look into hotels for their friends and families in potential playoff host cities. Now, they may not get into the dance at all.
Amid the Royals' second seven-game losing streak of the past month, the American League Wild Card picture has tightened up immensely. What was a six-game cushion for a playoff spot two weeks ago is down to a single game, and the Royals are playing their worst ball at the worst possible time.
The Royals still control their own destiny, but they've given themselves a much tougher job after slacking off for the past week. With six games to go, all on the road against the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves, they would be best served winning all six. But that's rarely how things work out.
So what realistically has to happen for the Royals to make the playoffs? How will they fare in potential tiebreakers against other AL playoff hopefuls? Let's break it all down.
As of Monday afternoon, the Royals and Detroit Tigers are both 82-74, tied for the second AL Wild Card spot. The Minnesota Twins have fallen to 81-75, one game back of both, and the Seattle Mariners are two games back at 80-76.
If the Royals tie with the Twins, Minnesota will own the tiebreaker. If they tie with the Tigers, Kansas City will own the tiebreaker. If they tie with the Mariners, Kansas City will own the tiebreaker thanks to intraleague record. If they tie with more than one team, all heck breaks loose.
If the Royals, Twins, and Tigers tie, the Tigers would be out.
If the Royals, Twins, and Mariners tie, the Mariners would be out.
If the Royals, Tigers, and Mariners tie, the Mariners would be out.
And finally, if all four teams tie, the Royals and Mariners would be out.
That means that as of Monday, the Royals' magic number is technically six. They will need a combination of wins and Twins losses that adds up to six, as Minnesota is the closest team chasing them for a spot. The Mariners could jump the Twins and complicate things, but as always, the Royals' magic number hinges on the closest team behind them in the standings.
It's not going to be easy. The Nationals are no pushover, and then the Braves may well be fighting for their own playoff chances on their home turf. It will be incumbent on the Royals to quickly put last week's misery behind them and shift their focus to
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Jackson Roberts is a former Division III All-Region DH who now writes and talks about sports for a living. A Bay Area native and a graduate of Swarthmore College and the Newhouse School at Syracuse University, Jackson makes his home in North Jersey. He grew up rooting for the Red Sox, Patriots, and Warriors, and he recently added the Devils to his sports fandom mosaic. For all business/marketing inquiries regarding "Kansas City Royals On SI," please reach out to Scott Neville: scott@wtfsports.org