Despite His Hot Streak, Carlos Santana Remains an Issue for the Royals
Carlos Santana is in the final year of his two-year deal with the Royals, and this could be the last year we see him play at the big-league level. With that said, let's first get the good things out of the way about his 2022 season.
It's well known that Santana's trademark to this point in his career has been his ability to walk at elite rates — he has a 15.1 BB% in his career. This season is no different, as he is in the top 1% of the league in BB% at 16.9. On Baseball Savant's leaderboard, he would be number three in the league behind Yandy Diaz and Juan Soto (he doesn't have enough at-bats to qualify).
Another good thing has been Santana's "hot" stretch. Since May 20th, entering Thursday's play, Santana has a slash line of .294/.390/.431 with an OPS of .821. This is the best Santana has been in a Royals uniform since the first half of last year. His defense has been alright as well, as he's checking in with an OAA (outs above average) of 1, which is where he always, is at first base. The last positive thing to say about Santana is that his BsR (baserunning runs above average) is 0.5, his highest since 2019. Now, with the positives out of the way, let's get to the meat of this deep dive.
One of the major issues with Santana in 2022 has been his inability to hit fastballs. He has only hit them to the tune of a .176 average and he isn't slugging them either, posting a .282 SLG. He isn't hitting breaking or offspeed pitches either, but being unable to hit fastballs is his main issue.
The weird thing about Santana's inability to hit fastballs is that he can hit four-seamers very well. When looking at run values, he has a run value of 1 on four-seam fastballs and a minus-2 or worse on any other type of fastball offering. This still isn't good, by any means.
When thinking of prime Santana, one likely considers elite base-on-balls skills and a powerful bat. Fast-forward to today, and the only thing left is the elite base-on-ball skills. There's no power. ISO (isolated power) is a stat that takes SLG and subtracts that by batting average. Santana has a career ISO of .189, which is above average. The past two seasons, however, have seen a huge decline in his power. He had a .127 ISO last season and is posting a paltry .089 this season. This is probably due to the age-old tale of bat speed regression but regardless of the reason behind it, it's sapped Santana of whatever power he had left in his once-lethal bat.
To add to the problems for Santana, he has been largely ineffective against righties. When looking at wRC+ against righties, Santana is well below average with a 72. For those keeping track at home and doing the math, that's 28% below the MLB average. His slash line against right-handed pitching is a terrible .174/.297/.284 with an OPS of .581.
On the other hand, against left-handers, Santana has a wRC+ of 132 with a slash line of .250/.438/.292, as well as a .729 OPS. Another potential issue for Santana is the fact that he has pulled the ball way above his career average — 45.4% — at 50.9% this year. This batted ball profile also shows that Santana is not barrelling the ball either. He's doing so at a 5.6% rate this year (his career average is 7.9%).
The Royals have to make a decision soon on Santana, as the organization's two top first basemen prospects (Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto) are making a lot of noise in the minors. With the big-league team not being competitive, the Royals need to cut ties with Santana one way or another.
The regression of Santana has made him a shell of his former self, and it's sad to see a good hitter decline so much. With that in mind, the Royals should see the writing on the wall and cut him loose so he can either go to a competitive team or ride off into the sunset. His best days — or anything resembling them — are firmly behind him.
Trey Donovan is a contributor for Inside the Royals, as well as KC Kingdom over at Fansided. Trey is currently going to Baker University, where he is majoring in Mass Media. You can follow him on Twitter @Tdonova7, where he posts some analytical stuff on the Royals.