Explaining Hunter Dozier’s Immense Second-Half Struggles

Dozier's season has taken a nosedive, and it may lead to some interesting scenarios for the Royals.

Hunter Dozier has gone from a solid middle to bottom-third of the order bat for the Kansas City Royals to someone who probably shouldn't be an everyday player in a matter of months. Let's take a look at the downfall of his season, comparing his first half to his second half. All stats are valid entering Wednesday night's play.

In the first half of the season, Dozier's slash line is a respectable .265/.327/.445 with an OPS of .772 and a 118 wRC+ (18% above league average). This isn't the greatest, but it was starting to look like Dozier was well on his way to rebounding from a bad 2021 season driven by a couple of injuries that plagued him. 

Then the second half started for Dozier. In as good of terms as possible, it's been bad (read: god awful). Dozier's second-half slash line is .144/.204/.211, good for a .415 OPS. His wRC+ is 14, good for seventh-worst in the league since July 14. 

If we recall in the Whit Merrifield deep dive, I included an article going over some bad slumps. It might be safe to say that Dozier's second half has probably been one of the worst in history so far. So what exactly has happened to Hunter Dozier's bat?

Looking at Dozier's batted ball profile doesn't show a lot of change since the last deep dive. Looking at his hard-hit rate (37.5%) and barrel rate (7.6%), however, there is a pretty significant decline from earlier in the year. In the first deep dive, I noted that Dozier was top 30 in the league in barrel rate. Now, he's around league average. Is he still taking the same boom-or-bust approach that made his start good?

The short answer is yes; Dozier's approach hasn't really changed too much according to plate discipline stats from FanGraphs. So outside of barrel rate, what has changed? In terms of plate discipline, batted ball profile and expected stats, there really haven't been changes either. Looking at run values and situational splits may help tell the story.

Dozier can only hit one pitch well this year, and that is the four-seam fastball (+9 run value). He hits it to the tune of a .320 average while slugging .600 on them. His next-best pitch to hit, however, is the changeup at zero run value. He hits them at a .292 clip while slugging .438 on those offerings. Every other pitch known in the Baseball Savant run value chart explains that Dozier can't hit anything else well.

Looking at situational splits also tells an important portion of Dozier's season. Combining men on base and men in scoring position into one slash line it would be .205/.258/.313 with a .571 OPS in 274 at-bats. Add in a 59 wRC+ in both situations combined, that's a very poor hitter.

One thing hasn't changed for Dozier this season is that he's bad defensively at every spot he is put in. In terms of OAA and DRS, he has only negatives in every spot except first base. Even with 1 OAA at first, Dozier has a -2 DRS at the spot.

Dozier went from an above-average bat to one of the worst in the league within the same season, and that has led to issues for the Royals from here on out. His contract is troublesome for a player of his caliber, and the youth revolution has started in KC. That puts Dozier on a time limit.

Dozier has had one good full season in the big leagues — 2019 — and he has not replicated even a smidge of that since then. He started to look like 2019 Dozier earlier this year, then promptly fell off a cliff. There are two realistic options, with one being logical and the other being the Royal way: get rid of him in or by spring training of next year (as fellow Inside the Royals writer Jacob Milham wrote about), or play out his contract and waste a roster spot.

The Royals need to stop playing Dozier due to his unproductive bat and defense and merely accept that his contract isn't ideal. The consolation prize of cutting ties is that the Royals will see more of their young players who can potentially be a part of the next wave of competitive seasons. That is the most logical way to go.