Royals Should Start Thinking About a Brad Keller Extension

The Royals kept Keller past the 2022 trade deadline, so it's time to begin thinking about his future following the 2023 season.

The Kansas City Royals had a small impact on the 2022 MLB trade deadline, and that impact didn't include starting pitcher Brad Keller despite him being a rumored trade target. In fact, the Royals didn't trade a single pitcher before the Aug. 2 deadline.

Keller was hardly a top-tier trade target, but could've provided a contender a steady starter in the rotation's bottom half. While he is posting a gaudy 6-12 record and 4.45 ERA, Keller has been trending positively in 2022's second half. The Royals were 3-2 in his July starts and Keller had a 3.77 ERA in the same month. He also posted a quality start on Sunday — his 11th of the year. The results aren't spectacular, but anything in a positive direction is good for this year's Kansas City squad.

Keller has been a workhorse of the Royals' 2022 pitching rotation. He leads the team in pitching starts (21) and innings pitched (119.1) while pitching at least six innings in 13 games. What Keller lacks in putaway pitching, he makes up for with above-average groundball and walk rates. His profile matches well with Kansas City's traditional focus on infield defense.

Brad Keller, 95mph Fastball and 86mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/op30gkhVp4

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 11, 2022

Contractually, Keller is under club control through 2023. Speculation about the Royals extending Keller promptly began after both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, so let's start a bit earlier. 

Frankly, Keller's best season was his first: 2018. With a 9-6 record and 3.08 ERA as a 22-year-old rookie, the future looked bright for Keller. With that said, the Royals' 2021 Opening Day starter has been merely "okay" since then. Questions flew about Keller's future after a rocky 2021 season, but a decent 2022 performance should right his path. 

Keller has one more year of arbitration before hitting the open market. His $4.8 million salary in 2022 is certainly palatable, and he should see a slight raise in his third year of arbitration. Keller shouldn't get much of a raise barring a career-defining performance in 2023, though.

There's a career to be made as a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, something that Keller can be for the Royals. He could likely see a free agency contract in the $7-$9M range annually. With that in mind, Kansas City should absolutely look at extending Keller in the lower half of that range. They could buy low on Keller after a middling 2022 season. If he values either being in Kansas City or a contract's security, sacrificing some annual money may be worth it.

The Royals' pitching staff has been a patchwork unit in 2022, with several starters shuffling between Kansas City and Triple-A Omaha. Keller and fellow veteran Zack Greinke have been the only steady options. Greinke is on a one-year deal and will turn 39 in October, likely leaving Keller as the most experienced starting pitcher in Kansas City in 2023. The Royals, valuing Keller's experience and consistency, could reward the 27-year-old with an extension.

Keller has shown the Royals what he can do when he's on, especially when he has run support. The 2023 Royals are poised to have many young players entering the fold. Hanging on to Keller on for a few years, perhaps through 2026, would keep a steady veteran presence in the pitching staff while betting on a resurgence. 

Admittedly, it's an unspectacular move. Not everyone can be an ace, however, and a team just needs a workhorse sometimes.