Poor Win Projections Allow 2022 Royals to Defy Odds Once Again
As the Kansas City Royals are slated to begin their Opening Day festivities later on Thursday, the team is poised for an exciting season. For better or worse, a youth movement is expected to sweep through the big-league club and shape how the year unfolds.
Don't tell that to those projecting the team's record, though:
Royals 74-88 —> 70-92
— Jordan Foote (@footenoted) April 7, 2022
Do with that as you wish. https://t.co/gBN7P8E2Lt
Everyone is familiar with the Royals' proclivity for outperforming popular win-loss projections such as PECOTA, but major network sites are setting the bar relatively low this year as well. MLB's projection (listed above) has the club winning just 70 games this season, which would be a four-win decrease from 2021. Considering the additions the Royals are making to this year's team — as well as its minimal losses of major producers — that seems rather low.
It's not just MLB, though. CBS Sports' over/under total for each MLB club was released last week, and the Royals' figure was set at 75-and-a-half. Bleacher Report has Kansas City repeating its 2021 performance, going 74-88 for the second year in a row:
The goal in Kansas City is to get young players such as Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez transitioned to the major leagues and then see what happens from there. Developing the youngsters is all this season is about for the Royals. If that happens, the record won't matter as much. They won't compete for the division title barring some major contribution from their young core.
The notion that the 2022 Royals won't compete for a division title isn't far-fetched. Heck, it's probably accurate. The team simply has too much uncertainty surrounding it and needs many things to break right in order to capitalize on an American League Central that features several middling organizations and one assumed king at the top (the Chicago White Sox). It's the lack of year-over-year improvement in the predictions that is alarming.
As far as their lineup goes, the Royals could see some regression to the mean for players such as Salvador Perez and Nicky Lopez. On the flip side of that coin, they got next to nothing from Hunter Dozier and Carlos Santana for large chunks of last season. Adalberto Mondesi also missed a ton of time. With better injury luck and either an improved performance from former struggling bats or a replacement via infusion of young talent from the minor leagues (Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez), better days should be ahead.
Bobby Witt Jr.'s promotion to the big-league level also figures to add some pop, on-base ability and speed to the Royals' lineup. He's a win or two in year one at the minimum. The free agent signing of Zack Greinke will benefit a pitching rotation that is looking to see leaps from just about every young starter. That same rotation — minus Greinke — had a serious surge in the second half of the 2021 campaign and is expected to carry that into 2022.
The Royals' bullpen also features hard-throwing arms and dynamic pitchers alike. When adding up the entirety of the club's net positives, it's easy to see why anything other than a competitive team would make this season a disappointment. Kansas City has been here before, especially over the last decade. Not many are expecting a playoff push now, and that's okay. A decent improvement over last year's 74-win season is a reasonable bar, though, and one that at-large sites don't seem to have set.
Jordan Foote is the editor-in-chief of Inside the Royals, as well as the deputy editor of Arrowhead Report and a producer for Kansas City Sports Network. Jordan is a Baker University alumnus, earning his degree in Mass Media with a minor in Sports Administration. Follow him on Twitter @footenoted.