The Royals Find Themselves at a Minor League Crossroads
At the end of the season, we looked at the Kansas City Royals' failure to meet expectations when it came to success this year at the major league level. Now it's time to take a look at the ugliness that is the current state of their farm system.
With the firing of Dayton Moore, the Royals officially moved on to the next chapter in the franchise's history. This means that the 2014 and 2015 teams will no longer be relevant when discussing this team's future outlook, which should be good. What's less than ideal, however, is that the Royals now possess one of the lowest-graded farm systems in all of baseball.
This is not only reflected in the overall quality of the prospects, but also the clubs' overall records. The Royals' minor league system finished with an overall winning percentage of .426, the worst among any organization. With that being said, when Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto jump to the pros, you can expect the prospect rankings to take a hit. However, it should be noted that both Melendez and Pratto regressed significantly from their OPS number last year in the minors.
Offensively, you do have to like what Kansas City has produced this year out of Drew Waters, Maikel Garcia and Tyler Gentry. The newcomers this year have shined for the Royals, as the newly minted top-five organizational prospects Gavin Cross and Cayden Wallace excelled in limited action in Columbia. The problem is that mashing in a limited A-Ball schedule is not enough to build an organization around, and only time will tell if they can adjust to higher-caliber pitching.
The Royals' lack of ability to develop pitching is a serious indictment not only on the major league staff, but also on the minor league staffers. Asa Lacy, to put it kindly, suffered a serious setback in his development. The Royals' minor league staff has possibly ruined what could've been the big-league team's future ace. At this point in his career, Asa Lacy is Jackson Kowar without the rushed MLB call-up.
The failures of the Royals' minor league development can be best summed up in the four minor league pitchers they traded for this year: Beck Way, T.J Sikkema, Chandler Champlain and Andrew Hoffmann. After being traded to the Royals, the four pitchers pitched 139.2 combined innings with an ERA of 6.85. It would also be appropriate to point out that none of those pitchers pitched above Double-A.
Angel Zerpa, if you consider minor league and major league performance, is the Royals' top pitching prospect. In his very limited action, he has pitched to a sub-two ERA and demonstrated a good feel for his three pitches. However, many scouts predict that Zerpa's ceiling is that of a middle to lower-rotation starter.
Jonathan Bowlan, Ben Hernandez, Alec Marsh and Drew Parrish took steps back this year and don't project to be top-of-the-line starters, which is what the Royals desperately need. Ben Kudrna and Frank Mozzicato are the Royals top low-level pitching prospects, and both completed their first year of A-Ball. It's far too early to pencil them into future plans. There is no significant help coming to the Royals' rotation via the farm system, which means the likes of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley and potentially Zerpa will have to suffice until a new hope emerges.
A player to keep your eyes on for next season in the Royals' pipeline is Noah Cameron, who was by far the organization's best and most consistent minor league pitcher this season. The lefty stuck out 35% of the batters he faced this year despite his fastball only sitting around 92 MPH. Cameron is what you would call a "pitcher's pitcher" in that he throws strikes and knows how to work with what he has. As someone who saw him pitch multiple times for Quad Cities, his changeup is MLB caliber and drew a ton of weak contact and even more swings and misses. The development of his curveball will be the thing that makes or breaks his MLB ambitions, as it lacked the consistency to be anything more than a show-me pitch.
The main issue for the Royals is that their "MLB-ready" prospects in Triple-A are lackluster. Most of the future resides in the lower levels, with 14 of the top 30 organizational prospects sitting in Single-A or rookie ball. The minor league squads to watch next year will be Quad Cities and Northwest Arkansas; if those teams do well, it means that the young crop of players is succeeding. Triple-A (early on) is not going to be pretty next year, as it's probably going to be awaiting some interesting arrivals later in the season.
Offensively, the Royals have to get production out of players like Waters, Pratto, Pasquantino, Garcia, Michael Massey, Edward Olivares and Nate Eaton because there are very few reserves coming. The pitching pipeline is dead in the water and judging by J.J. Piccolo's recent press conference(s), I wouldn't bank on any big-time moves being made in free agency.
This, in all honesty, might be good for the Royals because signing a bunch of veterans to fill out the roster isn't going to give them a better understanding of what they have in their young players. The Royals' success will depend heavily on how well the farm system bounces back. Judging by last year, there needs to be a serious organizational shift made to the farm system to ensure that the organization doesn't remain bogged down.
Next week, we will evaluate the moves the Royals made at the deadline and whether they were worth making.
Jerry Edwards is a contributor to Inside the Royals and is the News Director for KCII Radio in Washington, IA. Jerry is a graduate of Baker University and a lifelong fan of the Royals. Follow him on Twitter (please) at @Jedwards_radio.