Which Royals Starter is Most Likely to Throw a No-Hitter?

Love it or hate it, a no-hit game is far more likely to happen now than it ever has before. So, which starting pitcher from the Kansas City Royals could potentially toss a no-no?

Wednesday night, deep in the heart of Texas, New York Yankees starting pitcher Corey Kluber tossed an unprecedented sixth no-hitter of the young baseball season.

Love it or hate it, a no-hit game is far more likely to happen now than it ever has before. League-wide batting averages are at a historic low and the pitchers today are taking advantage.

But instead of getting bogged down with an "is this good for the game, is this bad for the game" discussion, it seemed easier to just ask myself which Royals pitchers could we see throw a no-hitter this season?

If we are looking for some common themes (besides playing the Indians, Mariners & Rangers) that could help predict who will have a no-hitter we have to look at command and pitch variety. 

All in total from the 61 innings pitched in no-hit contests (including Arizona Diamondbacks' Madison Bumgarner's seven-inning no-hitter) there were a combined four walks. Although, it isn’t just about locating one pitch and rolling with it. Both Kluber and Detroit Tigers pitcher Spencer Turnbull executed five different pitches during their no-hit games, keeping hitters guessing and off-balance even on their third plate appearances.

But without further adieu, here’s my list of likeliest candidates to throw the Royals' first no-no since Brett Saberhagen during the 1991 season.

4. Brad Keller

Brad Keller does well with the utilization of different pitches, throwing a four-seam fastball just under 40% of his pitches and mixing in a sinker and slider with regularity. While he is good about pitching to contact, the average exit velocity of balls batted off of Keller is on the high side of the league and his WHIP of 1.84 makes it a little harder to see Keller going the distance with limited traffic on the bases.

3. Mike Minor

Mike Minor’s last outing, a seven-inning, two-hit game, was a good glimpse at the kind of stuff he brings to the table when he’s got it going on. Minor uses four pitches, his best of which might be his fastball. Not overpowering, but ranking in the 94th percentile for spin rate, Minor has a go-to pitch that could keep him ahead in counts and get him out of trouble. He is also good with limiting baserunners, ranking ahead of reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber in WHIP and trailing the latest no-hit pitcher, Kluber, in the category by just .02 points.

2. Brady Singer

Brady Singer has been a mixed bag this season, to say the least. However, Singer is heralded for his natural pitching talent and the filthy stuff he can produce. Singer flirted with the no-hitter last season, going eight and two thirds without allowing a hit against the Cleveland Indians. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard-hit balls, ranking in the 85th percentile, and is ultra-competitive on the mound. His aggressive attitude to go at hitters coupled with his splendid splitter and a well-executed slider could prove dangerous for batters.

1. Danny Duffy

No surprises here. The Royals ace is the most likely to complete a no-hit bid once returning from the injured list. Danny Duffy has been fantastic through the first month and a half of the season with an ERA of 1.94, good for seventh in the league among qualified starting pitchers. Duffy has the highest average pitches per start on the team and eats up the most innings by far of anyone on the staff. Duffy has been in command all season, issuing just 12 walks in 41.2 innings worked. He has the most in his repertoire among the Royals staff, throwing five types of pitches on a consistent basis. Duffy excels in whiff rate and in chase percentage, which allows him to record outs without giving the hitters many chances at a hittable pitch. 

Though I’ve tried my best to accurately rank the most likely candidates to throw a no-hitter this season, the beauty of a no-hitter is that we never see it coming. For instance, on a team with Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn, who would’ve thought Carlos Rodon would have the no-hitter? Or a team with Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, that Joe Musgrove wouldn't allow a hit? Or even teams like the Baltimore Orioles or Detroit Tigers would get to see one of their own immortalized in baseball history?

I can't promise that there will be a Royals pitcher throw a no-hitter this season but in the words of the late, four-time All-Star Joaquin Andujar, “You can sum up the game of baseball in just one word, ‘you never know.’”

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