Royals at the Crossroads: To Buy or Not to Buy at the Trade Deadline?

In a challenging position, Kansas City must weigh the allure of potential playoff success against the need for long-term roster stability.

Jun 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) and left fielder MJ Melendez (1) celebrate after a walk-off single by third baseman Maikel Garcia (not pictured) during the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Kauffman Stadium. / © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

As the Kansas City Royals reach the halfway point of the season, their record stands at 43-37, a significant improvement from previous years. This progress, while promising, presents a dilemma as the trade deadline approaches. Should the Royals make aggressive moves to push for a postseason berth, or should they take a more cautious approach to sustain their progress without compromising their future?

The latter option seems the wiser path.

In recent years, the Royals have found themselves in dire straits by midseason. In 2023, they were a dismal 23-58 at the halfway point and didn’t fare much better in the second half. The previous years were similarly bleak: 30-51 in 2022, 34-47 in 2021, and the list goes on. This year, however, the Royals are above .500 at the midpoint, a milestone worth celebrating. But let's not get carried away just yet.

General Manager J.J. Picollo faces a tough decision. The Royals lack a pipeline of immediate talent, meaning they need to buy talent to stay competitive. However, they must tread carefully: trading away too much talent in a potentially competitive year risks compromising their current strength. At the same time, Picollo must avoid mortgaging the farm for uncertain returns, lest past mistakes haunt the team once more. It's a high-stakes balancing act that demands prudent decision-making to secure both short-term success and long-term stability.

The Royals’ chance of winning the World Series stands at a mere 0.9%. Yes, you read that right—0.9%. With such slim odds, making drastic moves at the trade deadline seems like a gamble not worth taking. The objective of every MLB season is to win the World Series, and risking the future for a slim shot this year doesn't align with that goal. Currently, Kansas City sits nine games back of the division-leading Guardians (50-26), languishing in third place. Additionally, they find themselves on the outside looking in for the Wild Card, trailing behind the Orioles (49-29), Twins (43-35), and Red Sox (43-36).

Kansas City has some glaring weaknesses. Their bullpen needs a boost (5.31 ERA over the past 14 days) and their outfield lacks true continuity. These areas need addressing, but not at the cost of depleting the farm system. The Royals should look for value-added trades, similar to how they acquired players like Velazquez, McArthur, and Schreiber. Despite struggling lately, both Velazquez and McArthur have been significant contributors at the major league level, and when on, are great additions—without significant cost. While aiming for more impactful acquisitions this time, these are the type of calculated moves that should be pursued.

Picollo has expressed a desire to be aggressive at the deadline but also recognizes the importance of long-term goals.

"I like to think that we’re just getting into a window where we’re going to have a nice handful of seasons,” Picollo said in an interview with MLB Network on Sunday. “So how far do we want to push this thing is something that we have to answer as a front office. But I will say that I feel an obligation personally to the guys that committed to this team and chose Kansas City... So we will be aggressive, and we’ll look at anything and everything.”

For proponents of the "all-in, win-now" mentality, it may be challenging to accept, but this balanced approach is crucial for the Royals to enhance their roster while safeguarding their future assets.

Kansas City has the option to hold steady at the trade deadline—no major buying or selling. They can stick with their current roster and aim for a wild card spot without depleting their farm system. A conservative approach as moderate buyers, willing to take on salary, could be the key.

Holding relatively steady at the trade deadline could also send a positive message to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and future free agents. Dismantling a team that is in contention for a postseason berth could hurt team morale and future recruitment. By maintaining their current roster and making strategic, smaller moves, the Royals can show their commitment to building a competitive team over the long term.

There’s also the political angle to consider. With a new stadium deal on the horizon, ownership is likely considering how a playoff team could energize the local fan base and support initiatives like a sales tax for the new stadium. While this might tempt the Royals to make bold moves, they must balance this with the need to maintain a sustainable and competitive team for the future.

Their significant progress this season is a foundation to build upon, not a reason to make drastic, short-sighted decisions. By focusing on marginal improvements and preserving their farm system, the Royals can continue their upward trajectory and position themselves for sustained success. The goal should be to keep and continue building a reliable supporting cast around key players like Witt Jr. and to rebuild the farm system, starting with the No. 6 pick in July's 2024 MLB Draft, ensuring that the team remains competitive for years to come.

So Royals fans, enjoy the ride this season. Who knows where it could take you? For now, celebrate the progress and look forward to a bright future. After all, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither is a championship baseball team.

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