Seth Lugo’s Struggles: What’s Behind the Royals Ace's Recent Decline?
Seth Lugo, the Kansas City Royals' ace, has hit a rough patch at a critical juncture of the season.
Once the reliable workhorse of the Royals' rotation, Lugo's recent struggles have raised concerns as the team fights to stay in playoff contention.
On Tuesday against the Twins, Lugo endured one of his worst outings of the season in a 13-3 loss, logging just 4.0 innings and allowing seven earned runs on 83 pitches. Though he managed four strikeouts, his command faltered, walking a batter and leaving the Royals in a deep hole early. This performance is part of a troubling trend for Lugo, whose effectiveness has waned in recent weeks.
Lugo has never been known for having a blow-by fastball, with his fastball velocity sitting at 92.3 mph, ranking in just the 23rd percentile across the league. Instead, his success has hinged on precise command and the ability to mix his pitches effectively. However, in recent outings, his command has become an issue, leading to more mistakes over the plate and, consequently, more hard contact from opposing hitters.
Lugo's downward slide began on July 13th against Boston, where he allowed ten hits and five earned runs. Though he bounced back with a brilliant complete-game effort on July 21st, holding his opponent to just three hits over nine innings, that gem now appears to be an outlier. His subsequent outings have been marked by inconsistency and a worrying increase in earned runs.
In his start against the Chicago White Sox on July 27th, Lugo was hit hard, surrendering six earned runs on five hits and two walks, while managing just two strikeouts. His struggles continued in a subsequent outing against Boston on August 6th, where he gave up four earned runs. Over those five starts, the Royals stumbled to a 1-4 record, a sharp decline that mirrors the steep rise in Lugo’s ERA—from an impressive 2.48 on July 13th to a more concerning 3.04 today. Considering his ERA was a sparkling 1.72 on June 1st, this level of regression is particularly troubling. Lugo was expected to face some challenges, but not to this extent.
Lugo's peripherals offer some insight into his struggles. While his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.95 and xBA of .251 place him in the middle or lower end of the league, his strikeout rate of 20.8% falls in the 37th percentile. These numbers suggest that Lugo's stuff has been less dominant, relying more on finesse and location than overpowering hitters. The lack of a true out pitch, with his cutter not spotting well, has left Lugo vulnerable when his command falters, as evidenced by his recent outings.
Further compounding the issue is Lugo's post-All-Star break performance, where his ERA has ballooned to 5.23. In 32.2 innings, he has allowed 22 earned runs, giving up 19 walks while striking out 19 batters. His 27.7% chase rate and 22.5% whiff rate indicate that batters are laying off his pitches more effectively, leading to more contact and, ultimately, more runs.
For the Royals to remain in the playoff hunt, they'll need Lugo to rediscover the form that made him a reliable ace earlier in the season. As the pressure mounts, Lugo's ability to adjust, refine his command, and find consistency could be the key to the Royals' postseason aspirations.
Check us out on:
- Twitter - RoyalsCentralFN
- Facebook - RoyalsCentral
