Roundtable: Previewing the Final Month of MLB’s Regular Season

Who are the contenders, pretenders and dark horse award picks as the baseball season hurtles into its stretch run? Our staff discusses those topics and more.

Judge and Harper are gearing up for what they hope are lengthy runs into October. / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

We’re officially a month away from the conclusion of MLB’s regular season on Sept. 29, and very little is settled in terms of both playoff spots and individual award races (even if Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are doing their best to run away with the MVP awards). September should bring lots of excitement down to the final weekend, so let’s look back on what’s transpired so far this season and what may lie ahead.

1. What's surprised you the most about the regular season so far?

Tom Verducci: The Kansas City Royals are the biggest surprise of the year. Whether they make the playoffs or not—and they look like a solid bet to do so—this is a historic turnaround. The Royals lost 106 games last year. Now here they are with an offense that doesn’t strike out and has been the best team with runners in scoring position and the best team at taking the extra base. They’re also winning the war of pitching attrition. Only the Royals and Seattle Mariners have four starters who have thrown enough innings to be qualified for the ERA title. They are no fluke.

Stephanie Apstein: I didn't think it was possible for the Chicago White Sox to be this bad. It's not a great team, but if the 2023 Oakland A's could win 50 games, I thought there was no way the White Sox would have a legitimate shot at the 1962 New York Mets' 120-loss record. That team has, in retrospect, become sort of bumbling and lovable, an essential chapter in Mets lore. It's hard to imagine this group will someday gain the same rose-colored reputation. 

Emma Baccellieri: Just how bad the White Sox are. I really did not think we'd have a chance to witness historic levels of bad play this year. (And if we did, I thought it would come from the A's.) That the White Sox have been this tremendously, consistently incompetent across just about every facet of the game this season has been more striking for me than anything else.

Nick Selbe: On a big picture scale, the NFL-style parity that's taken hold of the league this year is something I did not see coming. The Los Angeles Dodgers, with all the money they spent this winter, had all the makings of a behemoth back in March, but have been dogged by injuries. The Philadelphia Phillies were on pace for 105 wins just before the All-Star break but have fallen back to the pack. Having zero 100-win teams for the first time in a decade should make for an exciting postseason.

Will Laws: I thought the sort of season Aaron Judge had two years ago came around once in a generation, if that. It turns out he may have something even better in store for us this time around. Even if the New York Yankees captain doesn’t break his own American League home run record, his overall impact at the plate this season has been better than in his historic 2022 campaign—his 225 wRC+ would rank fourth all-time, behind three tainted Barry Bonds campaigns, if it holds up. Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by Judge’s greatness at this point, but regardless, it’s a sight to behold.

2. Which team are you most confident about penciling in for a World Series berth?

Verducci: I think like the World Series chances of the Philadelphia Phillies. They hit a lull as Trea Turner and Bryce Harper stopped hitting. That’s not a sustainable problem to worry about. The return of Ranger Suarez healthy and throwing well gives them an elite and battle-tested playoff rotation.

Apstein: I will go with the Yankees here, because I think the AL is weaker than the NL. The AL Central is almost certainly going to send three teams to the playoffs not because they are all juggernauts but because they all got to play the White Sox 13 times. Once those squads start seeing playoff pitching, the results might be different. That leaves the Yankees, the Baltimore Orioles and the Houston Astros. The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. 

Baccellieri: The Dodgers—yes, even with their injury woes. The fact that they've been able to remain so competitive despite being consistently shorthanded makes it hard to count them out. This group is just too deep and too talented to argue otherwise. 

Selbe: Every team in the mix has flaws and has gone through rough patches this season. So give me the team that's dominated October for the majority of the past decade: the Astros. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have both been excellent during the second half, and if Kyle Tucker can make it back to full strength in time, the lineup should be among the best left standing.

Laws: While it'd be fun and fitting for us all to choose different teams for this question in this season of parity, I have to go with the Phillies, too. They’re a battle-tested bunch with the best bullpen they've had in a while to alleviate what’d been a weakness at times over the past couple of years. The injury bug has bitten the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves to the extent that Philadelphia should enter the playoffs confident of achieving another deep run.

3. Which contender is most likely bound for an early October exit?

Verducci: I would worry about the Orioles. One or two power arms away from World Series caliber, they whiffed at the deadline, taking on projects (Rogers, Soto, Dominguez) when they needed plug-and-play answers. They hit home runs, which makes them dangerous at all times, but the pitching looks like it will keep the O's from a deep run.

Apstein: I just don't think the Dodgers have the pitching. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow hope to be back from injury in time to start in October,  and Tony Gonsolin could be available in long relief, but there are no sure things in this rotation. Gavin Stone has been better lately, but he had a terrible July, and Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler have struggled. Clayton Kershaw is mostly getting through his weekly five innings on willpower at this point. The offense can carry them pretty far, but I'm not sure it can carry them to a title. And after they spent almost $1.5 billion in free agency last winter, anything short of a title qualifies as an early exit.

Baccellieri: Much as I've enjoyed watching these Cleveland Guardians—what a tremendously fun bunch—I do have questions about what kind of run they can make. Their recent swoon has felt like a good example of just how things might go wrong for them: It's not hard to see an early exit with these holes in their lineup. 

Selbe: The Milwaukee Brewers have made the playoffs four times in the last five years but have not won a postseason series during that span, so I'm going with them. The rotation is lacking in dependable options, and Christian Yelich's season-ending back injury is brutal. Given how the playoffs have been full of surprises in the 12-team format, though, watch Milwaukee roll through the field into the Fall Classic.

Laws: The Arizona Diamondbacks have done a stellar job of vaulting back into NL West contention since the All-Star break, but I don’t see them winning a playoff series this year, let alone another pennant. Zac Gallen’s strikeout rate has declined to a career-worst 22.7%, and his rotation mates aren’t scaring anyone.

4. Which team not currently in a playoff spot has the best chance of qualifying?

Verducci: New York Mets. I don’t love their chances for the third wild card because they walk too many batters, but they do have high-end talent and an offense capable of going on a run. Edwin Diaz just doesn’t look the same, so it’s going to be difficult without certainty at the back end.

Apstein: I will give this to the Mariners. They have seven games left against each of the A's and the Texas Rangers, and they only have to unseat one of the Guardians, Royals and Minnesota Twins, all of whom face tougher teams. 

Baccellieri: The Boston Red Sox. Such is the power of Rich Hill! (That's only as much of a joke as you believe it is.) It will require a lot to go just right, but Boston's lineup is strong enough to create a real shot at edging out Minnesota for that last wild-card spot for the AL.

Selbe: The Mets are the pick here. They play nine of their next 12 against the White Sox, Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays, then play seven of their next 10 at home (though seven of those games are against the Phillies). A three-game trip to Atlanta on Sept. 24–26 could determine the final National League wild-card spot.

Laws: Can Seattle replacing Scott Servais with folk legend Dan Wilson in the dugout provide the sort of new manager bounce typically chased in soccer? The Mariners have started Wilson’s tenure by winning two consecutive series for the first time since mid-May, so they’re on the right track. More pertinently, they have the sport’s deepest rotation that gives them a chance to win every night. And with Randy Arozarena enjoying his first three-hit game as a Mariner on Wednesday, it seems like the time is right for Seattle’s offense to finally wake up against a softer schedule than any of the three AL Central contenders will have to navigate in September.

5. Who's an underrated awards contender deserving of more recognition?

Verducci: Emmanuel Clase for AL Cy Young Award. He’s not going to win, but he needs to be mentioned in the conversation more. The Guardians closer has a 0.58 ERA, eight walks and 54 strikeouts. He has given up one home run and four earned runs all year. Batters are hitting .071 against him with runners in scoring position.

Apstein: It doesn't matter, because Aaron Judge is obliterating the sport, but Bobby Witt Jr.'s 177 OPS+ is the best by a shortstop since Artie Wilson had a 191 in 1948.

Baccellieri: Perhaps it sounds crazy to call Bobby Witt Jr.'s season underrated. But I really think we may not be giving it enough attention! Yes, Aaron Judge is on another planet right now, and he'll likely win AL MVP, as he should. But Witt's combination of hitting, speed and defense has been incredible, too. By the end of the season, he could have a strong case for the best season in Royals history, beating out George Brett’s 1980 MVP campaign. 

Selbe: He came on later than the rest of the field and lacks the buzz of his contemporaries, but San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald has mashed his way into consideration for the NL Rookie of the Year award. He had logged only 76 plate appearances through the end of June, but since then has posted a .974 OPS with 13 homers and 10 stolen bases in 40 games. Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill have this looking like a two-horse race, but Fitzgerald's second-half surge has earned him some serious consideration.

Laws: Hunter Greene certainly won’t be winning the NL Cy Young award after going on the injured list with elbow soreness a couple of weeks ago, but he was dealing well enough to do so until then. The Reds’ former No. 2 overall pick has lived up to his potential this season despite pitching with a poor defense behind him, as hitters have managed just 5.8 hits per 9 IP against Greene, the lowest rate in the majors among qualified starters. Cincinnati may go down as a disappointment this year—my bold prediction for the Reds to win the NL Central hasn’t quite panned out—but Greene has been anything but.