SI:AM | Shohei Ohtani Is Poised to Reach Another Iconic Benchmark

And he’s eyeing his third MVP in four years.

Is there anything Ohtani can’t do? / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Here’s another reminder to subscribe to the daily Olympics podcast I’m doing with Mitch Goldich before the Games are over.

In today’s SI:AM:

🏃 The art of the 200
🇸🇪 The legend of Mondo
🤸‍♀️ Rivals and supporters

He’s better than ever at the plate

At this point in his career, is there anything Shohei Ohtani could do to surprise us?

Ohtani isn’t pitching this season as he recovers from surgery to repair the UCL in his throwing arm, so he hasn’t wowed us with two-way dominance like he has in the recent past. But what has Ohtani done instead? Only posted what is, by some measures, the best offensive season of his spectacular career.

Ohtani’s batting average currently sits at .309, which would be a career high, and while his on-base percentage and slugging percentage are slightly lower than they were last year (when he posted career highs in both categories), his OPS+ is the best of his career at 187. That’s because OPS+ is a stat that is adjusted according to a player’s ballpark and the league’s offensive environment. Since Dodger Stadium is more pitcher-friendly than Angel Stadium, the advanced stats believe that Ohtani’s 2024 season is even better than his ’23 campaign.

Fangraphs’ wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) concurs. Ohtani had a career-best 180 wRC+ last season and it’s up to 182 this year. If you’re not familiar with stats like those, any stat with “plus” in it is calibrated such that 100 is the league average and each point above 100 is one percent better than average. So that means Ohtani has been more than 80% better than the average big league hitter this year. Not bad.

Late game insurance from Shohei!

Dodgers x @FlyANA_official pic.twitter.com/zUH8NgyCYR

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 6, 2024

But if you’re not swayed by advanced stats, Ohtani is also poised to reach one of baseball’s most hallowed old-school stat benchmarks this year. Ohtani had a home run and a stolen base in Monday night’s win over the Philadelphia Phillies, giving him 34 homers and 32 steals on the season. With 49 games left in the season, Ohtani is well on his way to reaching the hallowed 40-40 club.

Ohtani swiped three bases in a 10–0 win over the Oakland Athletics on Saturday to become the third-fastest player ever to reach the 30-homer, 30-steal threshold. He did so in 108 games. The only players in MLB history to reach that mark faster were Alex Rodriguez in 1998 (107 games) and Eric Davis in ’87 (90 games).

Last year’s rule changes have made it easier to steal bases, but the 40-40 club remains one of the most exclusive lists in the sport. Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. had 41 homers and a whopping 73 steals last year to become just the fifth member of the group, joining Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Barry Bonds and José Canseco. But while it may be easier to steal bases today, very few players have Ohtani’s combination of power and speed. Only four players in the majors have hit at least 30 home runs this season. Other than Ohtani, none of them has more than five stolen bases (Aaron Judge). In fact, there are only five players in the majors with at least 20 homers and 20 steals this season.

Ohtani has been so great this season that even though he has played exclusively as a DH and offers no defensive value, he still leads the National League in WAR with 6.1. The next highest is Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte at 5.8. If Ohtani closes the season playing at anything close to his current pace, he’ll be a virtual lock to win the third MVP of his career. I’d say that’s well worth the record-setting $700 million the Dodgers gave him this winter.

Thomas goes for gold in the 200 meters Tuesday. / Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Here is what Mitch Goldich thinks you should watch today at the Olympics, headlined by American Gabby Thomas’s pursuit of gold in the 200 meters.

• Greg Bishop has a great breakdown of the technique required to run a winning 200m.

• Bishop was at the Stade de France on Monday night, where Armand “Mondo” Duplantis added to his legend with another record-breaking performance in the pole vault.

• Stephanie Apstein wrote about the final day of the gymnastics competition, where Simone Biles and Rebecca Andrade went head-to-head as rivals—and supporters.

• After competing in front of empty stands in Tokyo, the Paris Games are a reminder that fans are an essential part of sports, Michael Rosenberg writes.

• With the swimming competition in Paris concluded, Pat Forde looks forward to the 2028 Olympics, where the U.S. will have its work cut out for it in the pool.

• Gilberto Manzano was at Seahawks camp, where the big story was Seattle’s strong defense.

• Manzano also wrote about why NFL players were right to name Tyreek Hill the best player in the league.

The top five…

… things I saw yesterday:

5. The whale that showed up during the Olympic surfing semifinals in Tahiti.
4. Juanlu Sánchez’s perfectly placed shot for Spain’s game-winning goal against Morocco.
3. Mondo Duplantis’s world record-setting pole vault after he had already clinched the gold medal.
2. Elly De La Cruz’s big night at the plate: two homers and two doubles.
1. Jesús Sánchez’s 480-foot home run—the longest in MLB this season.