Detroit Tigers Have One of Worst Contracts in MLB Holding Them Back
The Detroit Tigers made it to the postseason in 2024 against all odds with their pitching staff helping lead the way. While the offense was an afterthought, finishing 23rd in MLB in combined OPS (.685), it was held back by the lack of production from one player, Javier Baez.
The Tigers signed the shortstop to a six-year, $140 million deal ahead of the 2022 campaign, and he is the highest-paid player on the roster heading into 2025 with a total of $25 million taken up on the club's payroll. Baez had an opt-out after the 2023 season, but he chose not to exercise it after two of the worst offensive campaigns of his career.
For those two years, the veteran batted .230/.273/.361 with 26 home runs, 126 RBI, and a 77 OPS+ across 1,137 plate appearances in 280 games. In eight seasons before signing with Detroit, Baez batted .264/.307/.477 with 149 home runs, 465 RBI, and a 104 OPS+ across 3,255 plate appearances in 862 games.
This year, the shortstop batted .184/.221/.294 with six home runs, 37 RBI, and a 46 OPS+ across 289 plate appearances in 80 games. It was by far the worst offensive production of his career, even with a strikeout rate of 23.9 percent, much lower than his career average of 27.6 percent.
The issue with Baez is his whiff profile. The batter is one of the worst in baseball at chasing pitches outside of the zone, and has been throughout his career, and it is to the point now where pitchers rarely come in the zone against him.
I'm convinced Javy Baez would swing at a pickoff attempt. pic.twitter.com/8QnQAWbYGe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2023
Since 2015, Baez has seen 16,150 pitches. Only 42.3 percent of those have been in the strike zone per Baseball Savant, with the MLB average sitting at 48.7 percent.
That is a massive difference.
Baez has shown no inclination to change his swing profile, and it will continue to bring the Tigers down. In 2024, even with the veteran playing only 80 games while dealing with injuries, the club ranked 30th in MLB in OPS from the position with a .552 mark.
While the alternatives for Detroit at the position were better than Baez, they were not that much better. Zach McKinstry posted a .608 OPS across 133 plate appearances at the position, while Trey Sweeney posted a .642 OPS across 119 plate appearances.
Sweeney also provided the club with solid defense at shortstop, posting two Outs Above Average in the short time that he manned the position. So, the rookie could prove to be a valuable replacement over Baez.
Since 2014 (excluding 2020), the Tigers have carried an average payroll of $141,163,133. For 2025, they have a projected payroll of $77,578,333, before a potential Tarik Skubal extension and official arbitration numbers.
The club has not shown any indication that they will be spending any big money this offseason, either. Even with the postseason appearance, they are still far from perennial contention and are more like the 2015 Houston Astros than the 2017 dynastic Astros.
Baez's contract has become an albatross, easily one of the worst active contracts in MLB today. With his performance, it will be impossible to trade the veteran without eating a majority of the deal or packaging multiple top prospects and still receiving nothing of note in return.
The best-case scenario for Detroit would be taking another page from Houston's book and cutting the veteran early in 2025 the way the Astros did Jose Abreu in 2024. This would give manager AJ Hinch free reign to play Sweeney, though the remainder of the deal would still loom large through 2027.
