MLB Playoff Odds Get Massive Shakeup After Detroit Tigers Sweep Royals
Wednesday couldn't have gone much better for the Detroit Tigers.
When the day started, the Minnesota Twins led the Tigers by 1.5 games in the AL Wild Card race. According to FanGraphs' MLB playoffs odds, the Twins had an 81.5% chance of making the postseason while the Tigers' odds were 22.2%.
By midnight, those numbers had shifted considerably.
In Cleveland, Minnesota blew a 4-2 lead to the Guardians in the 10th inning, suffering a crushing 5-4 defeat. The Twins have been in freefall over the past month, going 10-19 over their last 29 games and allowing Detroit to claw back into the race.
Shortly after that game ended, the Tigers completed a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit scored four runs for AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal, which was more than enough as the Tigers rolled to a 4-2 victory.
Detroit has caught fire down the stretch, posting the best record in baseball (25-10) since Aug. 11. The streaking Tigers are 9-2 over their last 11, closing the gap in the Wild Card race to just half a game entering play on Sept. 19.
grit don’t quit pic.twitter.com/HiqkE4s1l4
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) September 19, 2024
According to FanGraphs, Detroit's odds of making the playoffs are now 36.1% -- up from 9.9% on Monday morning. Meanwhile, Minnesota's odds have plunged to 71.5% -- down from 84% on Monday.
The Royals' odds have dipped as well, dropping from 97.4% to 88.5% since Monday. They've lost four in a row and are 7-13 over their last 20 games, shrinking their cushion to just 1.5 games over the Twins and two games over the Tigers.
In other words, the AL Central is pure chaos right now.
Detroit is off on Thursday (as is Kansas City) before beginning a three-game weekend series at Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles, who are also spiraling. They're 2-8 over their last 10 and have a losing record since the Fourth of July, so it's a winnable series for the Tigers.
Minnesota plays the Guardians again on Thursday before heading to Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox. If the Twins win, they will be a full game up on Detroit with nine to play. If they lose, however, both teams will be tied with identical 80-73 records.
Whatever happens, it's going to be a fight to the finish. If the Tigers stay hot, they just might be able to win it.
TYLER MAHER