What Affect Does Adames Signing Have On Alex Bregman's Impending Deal
On December 7, the San Francisco Giants signed the top infielder on the market, Willy Adames, to a seven-year, $182 million deal with a full no-trade clause. The baseball world was abuzz as Buster Posey made yet another splash as the club's newly appointed president of baseball operations. But, what does this mean for the next-best infielder available, Houston Astros free agent third baseman Alex Bregman?
Spotrac gave Bregman a market value of four years, $119.8 million well before Adames signed, for an AAV of just under $30 million a year. Bregman, however, has made it clear that he wants a deal in the $200 million and up range. Adames may have killed any chance of that happening.
The Detroit Tigers have been linked to the third baseman throughout the offseason. Manager AJ Hinch has familiarity with Bregman from his time as manager of the Astros, and the club needs a veteran in their lineup to help lead the young roster back to the postseason.
Adames is 17 months younger than Bregman, and while Bregman's approach at the plate regressed tremendously in 2024, Adames's has remained the same. Adames continued to draw walks at a rate well above league average, while the usually steady-eyed Bregman traded his patience for more power and saw his walk rate drop well below league average.
Bregman has yet to replicate the success that he had much earlier in his career, which saw him post a 144 OPS+ from 2016 through 2019. Since then, he has still been a solid contributor with a 122 OPS+ since 2020, but his defense at third base has become much more paramount over the years, culminating in his first career Gold Glove Award in 2024.
Adames plays a much more premium position of shortstop, where good offense is generally hard to find. Adames provides good offense, however, hitting .251/.331/.462 in 2024 with the Milwaukee Brewers with 32 home runs, 112 RBI, and a 118 OPS+ across 688 plate appearances in 161 games.
While Adames is not consistently Gold Glove-caliber at short, he has shown that he is capable of playing defense at that level in the past. The shortstop produced only 1.0 Outs Above Average in 2024 but produced 16 in 2023 and 10 in 2024. With the Giants rotation pitching in front of him now, Adames will have plenty of opportunities to flash the leather and could return to Gold Glove contention.
Bregman, who will be 31 in March, is on the wrong side of his prime, at a less premium position on both sides of the ball. Adames landing a deal south of $200 million, with an AAV of only $26 million does not bode well for the two-time World Series Champion. Bregman's deal should now be much closer to the $156 million the Astros offered him already, and whatever team lands the veteran will have a much more sightly payroll on the other side.
