13 days left in the regular season and Twins hanging on by a thread

The hottest team in baseball since Aug. 11 is the Detroit Tigers, who are applying immense pressure on the Twins in the wild-card hunt.

Sep 15, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Carlos Santana (21) celebrates after hitting a single against the Cincinnati Reds in the fourth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Believe it or not, October is just two weeks away and as surefire as the Twins' playoff hopes have looked from the moment Royce Lewis homered in his first at-bat on Opening Day, Minnesota is quite literally hanging on by a thread.

After losing two of three at home to the Reds over the weekend, Minnesota's division title hopes have been dashed. Even if the Twins sweep four games from the Guardians in Cleveland Monday through Thursday, they'll still be 2.5 games back in the AL Central.

In the wild-card hunt, the Twins still command the third and final spot but the Mariners and Tigers are both within 2.5 games, and the Red Sox are clinging to life at 4.5 games behind Minnesota. If the Twins have problems against the Guardians, they'll need the Mariners to struggle at home against the Yankees and the Tigers to faulter in a three-game series at Kaufman Stadium against the Royals.

Detroit has become scary. Since Aug. 11, the Tigers own baseball's best record (22-10). They just took two of three from the Orioles and this week they are on the road for six games against Kansas City and Baltimore.

According to FanGraphs, the Twins still have an 83.5% chance to clinch a wild-card spot. The Mariners are given only a 5.1% chance and the Tigers have a 9.6% chance. Boston is an afterthough with a 2.3% chance, per FranGraphs.

Baseball Reference is less bullish on the Twins, giving them a 75.3% chance to make the playoffs compared to a 17.4% likelihood for the Tigers and a 12% shot for the Mariners.

Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton were back in the lineup for the Twins on Saturday but both were rested Sunday based on the team's decision to ease them back from their respective injuries since neither player went on a rehab assignment to Triple-A St. Paul. It's unclear if they'll be everyday players over the final two weeks of the regular season, but the pressure is on the stars to step up and prevent the Twins from collapsing and missing out on the postseason.

(Our Twins conversation starts at the 38:00 minute mark in the embed below.)