AL Central race heating up as Twins enter critical nine-game homestand

The Twins and Royals are just two games back of the Guardians in the division.

Jul 21, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli (5) watches play in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field. / Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

With the Twins set to begin a critical nine-game homestand at Target Field on Friday night, the three-way race for the AL Central lead is getting good. The Guardians' 6-0 loss against the Yankees on Thursday cuts their lead to exactly two games over the Twins and Royals. Of the ten teams in MLB with at least 70 wins at this juncture, three of them reside in this division.

Team	Record	Games Back	Remaining SOS
Guardians	73-54	-	.502
Twins	71-56	2	.504
Royals	71-56	2	.534

If the season ended today, the Guardians would have a first-round bye and the Twins and Royals would go on the road in the wild card round. But with 35 games left, a lot can happen. The 67-59 Red Sox sit 3.5 games back of the Twins and Royals in the wild card race.

Over the next ten days, the Twins will play nine home games against the Cardinals (63-64), Braves (67-59), and Blue Jays (59-68). That's a critical stretch for a Minnesota team that is 36-24 at home this season. Going 5-4 would be enough to stay afloat, but the Twins would love to do even better than that.

These are the pitching matchups for the next nine games, highlighted by a very intriguing showdown between 2023 Twins aces Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray on Saturday night. Included is each pitcher's ERA, which is a useful stat even if it doesn't tell a complete story.

Twins vs. Cardinals

* Friday, 8/23: David Festa (4.96) vs. Andre Pallante (4.07)
* Saturday, 8/24: Pablo Lopez (4.47) vs. Sonny Gray (3.91)
* Sunday, 8/25: Zebby Matthews (3.60) vs. Erick Fedde (3.39)

Twins vs. Braves

* Monday, 8/26: Bailey Ober (3.54) vs. Max Fried (3.57)
* Tuesday, 8/27: SWR (3.69) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (4.04)
* Wednesday, 8/28: David Festa (4.96) vs. Chris Sale (2.62)

Twins vs. Blue Jays

* Friday, 8/30: Pablo Lopez (4.47) vs. Kevin Gausman (4.24)
* Saturday, 8/31: Zebby Matthews (3.60) vs. Jose Berrios (3.79)
* Sunday, 9/1: Bailey Ober (3.54) vs. Yariel Rodriguez (4.40)

The Braves series certainly projects as the most difficult of the three, but none of these games will be cakewalks.

On the injury front, the Twins could get Byron Buxton (hip) and Brooks Lee (shoulder) back from the IL during this homestand. Carlos Correa (foot) still seems to be a bit further away from a return.

Meanwhile, the Guardians — who have gone 22-28 in their last 50 games — have a ten-game homestand against the Rangers (59-69), Royals, and Pirates (59-67).

Sandwiched around their big four-game series in Cleveland, the Royals will host the Phillies (74-52) for three and travel to Houston for four against the Astros (68-58). Kansas City has the best run differential in the division but also possesses the toughest remaining schedule.