Are the Twins dead in the AL Central? Don't count them out just yet...

If they can stay afloat this weekend, next week's series in Cleveland will be huge.

Sep 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Carlos Santana (30) reacts to hitting a two-run home run during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images / Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

If the Twins can stay within five games of the Cleveland Guardians this weekend, next week's four-game tilt in Ohio could allow Minnesota one final chance to compete chase down the division title.

How much of a long shot is it? According to FanGraphs, the Twins have a 3.5% chance to win the AL Central compared to an 86.5% chance to clinch a playoff spot as a wild card team. The Twins play 16 games over the final 17 days of the regular season and they'll need to come from 5.5 games back — and pass the Kansas City Royals — to win the division.

While the Guardians face the Tampa Bay Rays three more times Friday-Sunday, the Twins are at home against the Cincinnati Reds. It's not going to be an easy series for the Twins as the Reds have won seven of their last 11 games and their Sunday starter is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, 22-year-old Rhett Lowder.

Lowder was the second pitcher taken behind phenom Paul Skenes in the 2023 MLB draft. The right-hander has made three starts since getting called up and he's allowed only one run on 11 hits in 15.1 innings.

On Saturday, the Twins will have to find a way to hit against Nick Martinez, who is fresh off seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Atlanta Braves in his last start. On Friday night, Minnesota will face 23-year-old Julian Aguiar, who was the Reds' 2023 minor league pitcher of the year.

But if the Twins can avoid falling further back in the division race this weekend, the stage will be set for Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober to pitch in next week's Monday-Thursday series in Cleveland.

The Twins have won 12 of the last 16 games started by Lopez and the right-hander has allowed zero earned runs in four of his past five outings. Lopez is scheduled to start the series opener on Monday and Ober is set to pitch on Wednesday, with rookies Zebby Matthews and Simeon Woods Richardson taking the ball on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

Lopez and Ober have matching earned-run averages of 2.75 since June 12, which are tied for ninth in the majors over the past three months.

Cleveland will be throwing Matthew Boyd, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo. Lopez has the clear edge over Boyd in the series opener; Williams is the better bet in the second game over Matthews; Ober versus Bibee is a great matchup (Minnesota has three runs total in three games aginst Bibee this season) and Woods Richardson probably has a narrow edge over Cantillo in the series finale.

A sweep is unlikely but if the Twins can win three of four in Cleveland, the AL Central race could remain very competitive until the end of September. If not, all eyes on the wild card.

Minnesota enters play Friday with a 3.5-game lead on the Detroit Tigers for the third and final wild-card spot. The Tigers have won 20 of their last 28 games and will likely either stay in the hunt or see their playoff hopes fade as they face the Orioles six times and the Royals three times over the next nine days.