Assessing Twins' starting pitcher options if Joe Ryan has to go on IL

If Ryan is out for a bit, who will the Twins turn to in their starting rotation?

Jun 11, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Louie Varland (37) delivers a pitch against the Colorado Rockies in the second inning at Target Field. / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Twins starter Joe Ryan exited Wednesday's loss against the Cubs with right triceps tightness in the third inning. After the game, manager Rocco Baldelli said the injury "doesn’t seem like some type of large-scale issue," but also noted that Ryan is "probably going to miss a little time here, in one form or another."

For now, the Twins are gathering information. Ryan is undergoing an MRI on Thursday, per Darren Wolfson, which will give the team's medical staff a better understanding of what he's dealing with and how long he might need to recover.

If Ryan does miss time, the Twins will have an open spot in their rotation that they'll need to fill. Chris Paddack is out with right forearm tightness, so the team is already leaning on a pair of rookies in Simeon Woods-Richardson and David Festa alongside veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. Replacing Ryan's production will be very difficult — he leads Minnesota starters in ERA, FIP, strikeouts, and walk rate — but the Twins aren't devoid of intriguing options in Triple-A.

Here are the two pitchers who would be most likely to replace Ryan in the rotation if he hits the IL, plus some bonus dark horse options.

Louie Varland

Varland is by far the easiest answer, considering he's already pitched in the big leagues this season and will do so again this weekend. The 26-year-old St. Paul native will be recalled to start one of the games in Friday's huge doubleheader against the AL Central-leading Guardians. The simple move would be to keep him on the roster if Ryan hits the shelf.

Varland has struggled at the MLB level this season, posting a 6.58 ERA and 1.65 WHIP across 26 innings in six appearances. His four starts in April were very rough, but his two outings in June actually went well. And although he has a 4.91 ERA in Triple-A St. Paul, he's coming off a scoreless six-inning start on August 3 and has been effective over his last six outings.

Louie Varland was in prime form yesterday in the @StPaulSaints win💥

6 IP / 5 H / 0 R / 1 BB / 8 K

Over his last 6 starts, he has a 1.48 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 30.1 innings pitched📈#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/GADWj5aDDv

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 4, 2024

Zebby Matthews

If Varland's start on Friday goes poorly, the Twins could consider turning to one of the top pitching prospects in their organization. Matthews has had a remarkable season, earning a pair of promotions to find himself in Triple-A after starting the year at High-A Cedar Rapids. Across those three levels, he has a 2.64 ERA with 109 strikeouts and just 6 walks in 92 innings.

However, after absolutely dominating at Cedar Rapids and Double-A Wichita, Matthews has a 7.07 ERA in his first three starts for St. Paul, allowing 22 hits and 11 runs in 14 innings. The Twins probably want the 24-year-old to find his groove at that level before potentially calling him up to the big-league roster.

Dark horse options

— Randy Dobnak: He’s been St. Paul’s best starter this season, but his recent call-up to the Twins’ bullpen has resulted in a 9.64 ERA in three appearances.
— Ronny Henriquez: He’s not really a starter option, as he’s only thrown up to three innings at a time this year, but he could be part of a bullpen approach.
— Caleb Boushley or Adam Plutko: These are veteran starters having mediocre years in AAA. Plutko started 20 games for Cleveland in 2019 but hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2019.
— Andrew Morris: One of the Twins’ top pitching prospects, Morris has been dominant for Wichita. There’s some precedent to MLB teams having pitchers skip AAA, but it seems unlikely the Twins would take that approach.