Could Twins' Bailey Ober sneak into AL Cy Young conversation?

Ober has thrown ten straight quality starts while establishing himself as the Twins' ace.

Aug 15, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (17) pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Twins starter Bailey Ober threw his tenth consecutive quality start in Thursday night's victory over the Texas Rangers. It wasn't his sharpest outing, but he settled in after allowing a pair of runs in the first inning and went six strong frames for Minnesota, giving his team a chance to win the ballgame. That's what he's been doing every time he takes the mound lately.

Ober's been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for the past two months. Since this QS streak began on June 16, he's 7-1 with a 1.87 ERA that leads the American League and ranks second among all MLB starters in that span. Dating back to late April, the Twins have won 14 of Ober's last 20 starts. He's been the picture of reliability for a team that has desperately needed it.

If he keeps this up, could Ober sneak into the AL Cy Young conversation? He's certainly a long shot in a race led by Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but who knows what could happen over the season's final six weeks. Here's a look at Ober's season stats and where they rank among AL starters (rate stats among qualified SPs).

— ERA: 3.49 (15th)
— Wins: 12 (T-5th)
— Strikeouts: 140 (12th)
— WHIP: 1.00 (5th)
— Opponent BA: .205 (4th)

Skubal is the heavy favorite in the race, and for good reason. He leads the AL in wins (14), ERA (2.53), and strikeouts (180). Also in the mix behind him are players like Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, and Cole Ragans, with Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase making an outside case for consideration as well.

Ober is unquestionably a long shot, largely because his ERA is hurt by a brutal season debut (1.1 innings, 8 ER in Kansas City on March 31) and a rough patch from mid-May to early June. But it's not completely out of the question that he could emerge as a dark horse if he continues to dominate moving forward and some of the pitchers ahead of him falter.

Here's what would have to happen for Ober to really enter the Cy Young conversation. He'd have to continue this recent run for his final eight starts of the season, probably finishing the year riding an 18-game quality start streak. It would help if he can approach 20 wins and 200 strikeouts, too. At the same time, the leaders in the race — Skubal, Burnes, Clase, etc. — would have to struggle down the stretch.

Even if a Cy Young is highly unlikely this year, the run Ober is on right now deserves all kinds of praise. With injuries to Anthony DeSclafani before the season, Chris Paddack in July, and now Joe Ryan in August, the Twins currently have three rookies in their starting rotation. Pablo Lopez, the Twins' No. 1 starter last year, has had a down season. Right now, the 29-year-old Ober is the ace of the staff. He's expected to deliver every time his spot in the rotation comes up, and he's been doing that without fail for two months now.