Due to tiebreakers, Red Sox look like Twins' main threat in AL wild card race

The Twins hold the tiebreakers against the Tigers and Mariners.

May 5, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Boston Red Sox Jarren Duran (16) slides into third base for a triple as Minnesota Twins third baseman Jose Miranda (64) fields the ball during the eighth inning at Target Field. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

With two weeks and change left in the MLB regular season, the Twins are desperately trying to hold onto the sixth and final playoff spot in the American League. As of Thursday afternoon, they're 3.5 games ahead of the Tigers and four games up on both the Red Sox and Mariners (who will be in action on Thursday evening) for the third wild card spot.

Due to tiebreakers and remaining schedules, it's Boston who appears to loom as the Twins' biggest threat in the wild card hunt.

The Twins went 7-6 against Detroit this season, so they hold the tiebreaker there (the league did away with game 163s in this new playoff format). That means their lead is really 4.5 against the Tigers, who had gone 20-8 over the last month before a tough loss against the Rockies on Thursday. With the Tigers now entering a stretch of nine consecutive games against the Orioles (6) and Royals (3), they're in deep trouble.

The Twins similarly hold the tiebreaker against the Mariners, having gone 5-2 against them in 2024. Seattle has six games against the Yankees and Astros within its final 16, plus seven against the Rangers, who are bringing Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom back into their rotation. They would also have to be extremely good to make a push towards the Twins.

If anyone appears to have a chance at catching Minnesota, it's the Red Sox. They'll host the Twins for three games at Fenway Park the weekend after this one, and a sweep could make things very interesting.

The Twins hold a 2-1 head-to-head lead over Boston so far this season. Even if the Red Sox win two of the final three games between the teams to even it up at 3-3, the next tiebreaker is division record. The Red Sox are 20-19 against the AL East with 13 division games left. The Twins are 28-20 against the AL Central with just four games remaining against Cleveland.

It won't be easy for the Red Sox, who begin a four-game series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night. They also have nine combined games against the Rays (6) and Blue Jays (3), who are sub-.500 but far from terrible. The path for Boston is to go 8-5 in their division games, sweep the Twins, and finish at 85-77. Even if the Twins go 7-6 against the Reds, Guardians, Marlins, and Orioles while getting swept by Boston, they'd also finish 85-77 and would lose the tiebreaker.

The path for the Twins is simple: play roughly .500 ball or better the rest of the way and win at least one game at Fenway to secure the season series. It was huge that the Twins managed to win the final two games of this week's series against the Angels, considering they'd lost six of their last seven and 15 of their last 21 before that.

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