Festa, Matthews considered among young starters best positioned to succeed

The Twins have developed a couple starters with bright futures.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher David Festa (58) throws during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on Aug. 17, 2024. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Since mid-June, 18 starting pitchers have debuted and made at least two starts. Two of them play for the Twins, and those two — David Festa and Zebby Matthews — are among the best of the bunch.

Festa ranks third among those 18 starters with 102 Stuff+, a metric used to analyze the characteristics of a pitch, essentially aiming to determine the nastiness of a pitch, according to FanGraphs. Matthews ranks sixth with 98 Stuff+. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris recently anointed Festa and Matthews two of the top-five recently debuted starters best positioned for future success. 

Festa made his major league debut on June 27 and has made six starts since then, posting a 2-2 record and a 4.96 earned-run average while fanning 39 across 32 2/3 innings.

Festa has been particularly good in his last five starts. If you take away his first two starts in the big leagues in which Festa gave up 16 hits and 12 runs, he's been lights out, having only allowed 18 hits and six runs across the 22 2/3 innings since then (2.38 ERA). And he's continued to get better.

Across three starts so far in August, Festa has a 2.03 ERA across 13 1/3 innings, allowing just 11 hits and three runs while fanning 18. He’s issued five walks in that span. Festa is scheduled to start Friday night's series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals, which will be his fourth start of the month.

What’s been the difference? It could be that Festa was pitching too much in the zone during his first couple starts, something that's been an adjustment for young starters. According to Sarris, Festa's pitches were in the zone 55% of the time in his first two starts. That was down to 45% in his next five.

"Is this something he can keep doing? He got good marks for his command from scouts, only really ever saw a bad walk rate against the automated balls and strikes system in Triple-A, and passes the eye test when it comes to command," Sarris wrote. "He looks like he has everything he needs to succeed."

Matthews, meanwhile, isn't considered to have as good of stuff as Festa, but he's been solid in his first two starts for the Twins, going 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA across 10 innings while fanning six, though he did have some struggles in his most recent appearance against the San Diego Padres.

"In his first two starts, the young Twin has shown good command of that 91 mph cutter and the 86 mph power slider," Sarris wrote. "... He comes with excellent minor league walk and strikeout numbers too. Festa is probably a surer thing, but these two are a win for Twins player development."