How good is the Twins' pitching staff if they trade Pablo Lopez?

The Twins have a bunch of talented arms who could be at Triple-A in 2025.

Sep 5, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) looks on against the Tampa Bay Rays in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Pablo Lopez will be the Twins' starting pitcher on Opening Day in 2025 so long as he's still wearing a Minnesota uniform. But with news that the Twins are allegedly listening to calls from teams interested in trading for Lopez, there appears to be a realistic chance that Lopez is dealt.

Lopez, 28, was pretty good in 2024 but not as good as he was when he finished seventh in the Cy Young vote in 2023. And if the price teams have to pay to acquire frontline starting pitching is as astronomical as Jeff Passan suggests, then trading Lopez might actually be a smart decision.

Pablo Lopez	ERA	IP	ER	HR	BB	SO
2024	4.08	185.1	84	26	41	198
2023	3.66	194.0	79	24	48	234

The problem with trading Lopez is that it would instantly reduce Minnesota's chance of being a contender in 2025. While one could easily argue that the Twins and most teams are dead before they even jump in the water against teams like the Dodgers and Yankees spending upwards of $300 million on payroll, Lopez gives the Twins an ace who could take the ball in a playoff game and pitch them to a victory.

Without Lopez, the starting staff still provides some hope but isn't nearly as strong.

Without Lopez, Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan would assume roles as the top two pitchers in the rotation. It gets dicy behind them with Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and Chris Paddack competing for jobs.

One could make the argument that the Twins can risk losing Lopez if they believe in the young pitchers that are rising through the minors. Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Eiberson Castellano and Cory Lewis are all in MLB Pipeline's top 25 Twins prospects and all of them have anticipated MLB arrival dates in 2025.

Raya is Minnesota's No. 5-ranked prospect and he made 24 starts at Double-A last season. He could be a strikeout machine but he's never pitched more than 97 innings in a season so he still has to prove he can be a starter for a full season.

Morris, the No. 6 prospect, dazzled with a 1.90 ERA at Double-A in 2024 before posting a 3.48 ERA in seven starts at Triple-A St. Paul.

Castellano is ranked 13th among Twins prospects and he blew away batters with 136 strikeouts in 103.2 innings between High-A and Double-A last season. He only made eight starts at Double-A, so he still has a ways to go before being big-league ready.

Lewis is Minnesota's No. 14-ranked prospect and he struck out 80 batters with a 2.59 ERA in 66 innings at Double- Wichita last season before having a cup of coffee in one start at Triple-A. He could be on the verge of making his MLB debut in 2025.

The Twins have some good arms who are close to being ready for the big leagues, but trading Lopez would certainly be a short-term negative for a Minnesota team that should be good enough to contend for a division title in 2025.