How long can the Twins wait to call up top pitching prospects?

How safe are the current five starters in Minnesota's rotation?

Jul 8, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; American League Futures pitcher David Festa (48) of the Minnesota Twins pitches to the National League during the fifth inning of the All Star-Futures game at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports / Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

What will the Minnesota Twins' starting rotation look like a year from now? What about a month from now? With a couple of big arms in the minors possibly pushing for a spot in the rotation, there's only a couple of guys in the current rotation who should have a strong sense of job security in Minnesota.

Pablo Lopez? No question about it. Joe Ryan? He's a lock. Simeon Woods Richardson? He's earning a spot as we speak. Bailey Ober? He's a strong candidate but inconsistencies are concerning. Chris Paddack? Inconsistencies make him questionable.

Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson, Ober and Paddack are all under contract but with David Festa and Zebby Matthews lighting up the minor leagues, the idea that one or both won't be in Minnesota's starting rotation next season seems unlikely. That means jobs could on the line and the audition process is happening now.

Festa, 24, has struck out 13.3 batters per nine innings this season at Triple-A St. Paul. That ranks eighth among all minor-league pitchers with at least 40 innings of work this season. The right-hander owns a 3.56 ERA in 12 starts and was recently ranked No. 100 in MLB Pipeline's top-100 prospects.

Festa, who according to MLB Pipeline has three "above average pitches" – fastball, cutter and changeup – is on the MLB doorstep and it's a question of when, not if, the Twins are going to call him up.

Matthews, as we noted earlier this week, has blitzed Double-A with dominance after starting the season at Class A. Among the 352 minor league pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, Matthews' 1.38 ERA ranks fourth and he's No. 1 in walk percentage (0.34 walks per nine innings) and WHIP (0.69), and his 32.8% strikeout rate ranks sixth.

MLB Pipeline says Matthews "has the best command" of any pitcher in the Twins' system, and at 24 years old the path to the majors may not be all that complicated.

The way it looks right now, Ober and Paddack, who are both 28 years old, aren't consistent enough to be guaranteed spots in the starting rotation next season, much less the rest of this season. Paddack has allowed an MLB-high 84 hits in 71 innings and even though he's coming off 6.1 innings of shutout ball against the Pirates, his earned-run average is 4.79. Ober's ERA is even higher at 5.13.

Of the teams currently in the American League playoff picture – Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Royals, Mariners and Twins –the Guardians and Twins are the only teams without three starters with earned-run averages below 4.00. The Yankees have five such starters; the Mariners have four; the Orioles have four, the Royals have three (and almost five); the Guardians have two; and the Twins have two.

Lopez, who is supposed to be Minnesota's ace, owns a 5.45 ERA.

You can probably see where we're going with this, but unless Ober and Paddack deliver consistently, the Twins might have no trouble giving their spots in the rotation to younger prospects like Festa and Matthews.