How Twins starting pitchers stack up to AL contenders after trade deadline

Minnesota needs Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joey Ryan to maintain form down the stretch...

May 31, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are the team of way too many what ifs.

If Trevor Richards returns to his form from 2023, he could be a savior in the bullpen. If Carlos Correa's plantar fasciitis doesn't linger, he could be a huge boost upon return from the injured list in the near future. If Caleb Thielbar returns to his 2023 form, he'll be just the late-inning lefty reliever the Twins need. If Jose Miranda hits like he did before the All-Star break, he'll be a star down the stretch. If Royce Lewis stays healthy, he'll for sure mash in the middle of the lineup. If Brooks Lee hits like he did when he first was called up, he'll help form one of the most feared infields in the game.

With so many what ifs, nothing is certain with the 2024 Minnesota Twins. But of all the what ifs, the one that weighs more than the rest is if Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan keep pitching like they have been, then the Twins won't have to sweat the fact that they didn't add a high-end starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

Other AL contenders did add starting pitcher before Tuesday's trade deadline. Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers went to the Orioles; the Guardians traded for 2023 All-Star Alex Cobb; James Paxton wound up in Boston; Michael Lorenzen landed in Kansas City; and Yusei Kikuchi went to the Astros.

If we consider the Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Guardians, Twins, Royals, Astros, Mariners and Rangers as the true playoff contenders in the American League, which teams are poised to enter the playoffs with the best starting pitching?

Yankees: Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes

Orioles: Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer

Red Sox: Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, James Paxton

Guardians: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb

Twins: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa

Royals: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen

Astros: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco

Mariners: Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo

Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Cody Bradbord

Which team is set up for the best success in a Game 1?

Assuming the No. 1 pitcher on each team is ready to go for a Game 1 in the playoffs, it's a battle from top to bottom among American League contenders. Lopez, when on his game, is as good as anyone on this list but it's also hard to put him ahead of Cole, Burnes, Verlander, Castillo and Eovaldi.

Which team has the best No. 2-3 starters?

Ober has been one of baseball's best pitchers since mid-June so he likely projects as Minnesota's No. 2 playoff option, followed by Ryan as the No. 3. Their inconsistencies are reason for concern but they both have potential to limit runs and go deep into games.

Ober and Ryan probably have the edge over Boston's Kutter Krawford and Nick Pivetta, and they're likely a better combo than KC's Seth Lugo and Brady Singer and Cleveland doesn't have a combo in the middle of the rotation better than them. You can even argue that they're a bit better than Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.

Seattle's George Kirby and Logan Gilbert would give Ober and Ryan a run for their money, as would Houston's Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi.

The Yankees with Carlos Rodon and Luis Gil are imposing while the Rangers could be a nightmare for if they reach the postseason because they have Max Scherzer and the likely return of Jacob deGrom.

Which team has the best No. 4 starter?

In the playoffs, a fourth starter can be pivotal. That's where Minnesota would be sweating bullets with rookies Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. Both have shown the ability to limit runs, but neither has pitched on the playoff stage and that is alarming regardless of how much potential they have.

The Orioles could give the ball to Trevor Rogers in a Game 4. Not great, but he's experienced. The Yankees can go with Marcus Stroman. Boston could lean on James Paxton. The Guardians could turn to Alex Cobb or Carlos Carrasco, or maybe Triston McKenzie will be back from his minor league stint and back to form by then. Seattle has two good options in Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. Houston may have issues with Hunter Brown or Ronel Blanco. The Royals have experience with either Michael Wacha or Michael Lorenzen. And the Rangers have plenty of experience in the rotation.

The Yankees, arguably, have the best No. 4 option with Stroman. But overall, no team is going to feel extra confident with a Game 4 starter.