Important series vs. Cardinals features intriguing pitching matchup

Pablo Lopez is scheduled to take the mound opposing Sonny Gray on Saturday.

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Aug. 6, 2024. / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins faced the first-placed Cleveland Guardians earlier in August, manager Rocco Baldelli said that every series going forward was his ballclub’s most important of the season. While those words were designed to not oversell the importance of that one particular series, they’re proving to be prophetic as the final month of the regular season inches closer and closer.

As of Thursday morning, the Twins are 71-56 and firmly in a wild-card spot, 3.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox for the sixth and final American League playoff spot. They are, however, also tied with the 71-56 Kansas City Royals for second place in the AL Central, with both teams just 2.5 games back of the Guardians in a division race that could go down to the regular season's final days.

So that brings us to the most important series of the season: a three-game home slate against the St. Louis Cardinals that begins Friday with a 7:10 p.m. first pitch at Target Field in downtown Minneapolis.

While the top storyline for the Twins from here on out will be just how important every win now is for the three teams vying for a Central division title, another intriguing angle will be the matchup of the probable pitchers for Saturday's game between the Twins and Cardinals: Top Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez is lineup up to face Sonny Gray, last year's AL Cy Young runner-up with the Twins.

Gray was stellar in his second season with the Twins last year, finishing the season with a 2.79 earned-run average and an 8-8 record after fanning 183 across 184 innings in 32 starts. Gray has followed that campaign with another good season this year, when he's gone 11-8 with a 3.91 ERA across 135 2/3 innings in 23 starts. His Cardinals are currently five games out of a wild-card spot.

Gray's 168 strikeouts are tied for seventh in the majors, and on the surface, he's put together a better year than Lopez, who also holds an 11-8 record but has a worse ERA (4.47) and fewer strikeouts (152) in more innings (141) and starts (25). But the two pitchers are on different trajectories this season.

Gray was lights out to start the season, posting a 1.16 ERA in April. Lopez, meanwhile, got off to a slow start, recording a 5.84 ERA in April — his worst month of the season.

Gray has started to slow down slightly; he had a 6.75 ERA in July and he has a 4.50 ERA across four starts so far in August. Lopez, on the other hand, is coming off his best month in July — aside from his one start in March — with a 3.90 ERA, and he has a 3.18 ERA across three starts so far in August.

The Twins will hope that Lopez can keep the momentum going on Saturday with every game crucial as they look to keep pace in the division race. The Cardinals, meanwhile, wouldn't mind seeing Gray return to his early-season form as they try to work their way into the postseason picture.

There will be no shortage of intrigue when the two teams meet on Saturday.