Just like that, the Twins and Tigers are tied in the AL wild card race

The Twins' playoff hopes are in grave danger with nine games left on the schedule.

Aug 28, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli (5) looks on during the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Target Field. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Just like that, after losing in heartbreaking walkoff fashion to the Guardians for the second time in less than 20 hours, the Twins are tied with the Tigers for the final wild card spot in the American League.

The AL Wild Card standings as of Thursday afternoon / MLB.com

Heading into play on August 18, the Twins were 70-53 and the Tigers were 60-64. That's a 10.5-game lead that has vanished in one single month, which is what happens when one team has gone 10-20 and the other has gone 20-9 since that point.

The Twins, once essentially a lock to make the playoffs, are now in grave danger of missing the cut with just nine games left on their regular season schedule. They do hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers, so they'd get in if the season ended today — but it doesn't. They have to find a way to turn this slide around right now if they're going to play in October. Fangraphs still gives the Twins a 63.3 percent chance to make the postseason, which feels entirely too high given the way they've played lately.

Thursday's loss was the latest gut punch in a string of them over the past month. The Twins lost three of four games in Cleveland this week, and all of them were painful. They gave up a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning on Monday, then watched the Guardians walk them off in the tenth inning on consecutive days. So while Cleveland celebrated clinching a playoff spot on Thursday, the Twins were left to ponder how they've gotten to this point.

The issues are manifold. The Twins' three rookie starters — Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews — have hit a wall, failing to complete five innings in seven consecutive starts between them. A bullpen with only a few reliable arms has been a disaster during this collapse, which is a direct reflection of the team's failed offseason moves and total inactivity at the trade deadline. Perhaps most damningly, the offense has gone completely cold, averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 30 contests.

The Twins' inability to get timely hits and add onto leads was their undoing in this Cleveland series, just like it has been all year against their biggest rivals. They went 3-10 against the Guardians in 2024, largely due to an offense that was horrific with runners in scoring position.

#MNTwins hitters went 18-for-106 (.170) with runners in scoring position vs. Cleveland this season.

They totaled more double plays (7) than extra-base hits (5) and struck out in 31% of their plate appearances with RISP.

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 19, 2024

The conversation should always come back to Twins ownership's decision to slash payroll this offseason after the team won its first playoff series in 21 years — and then do nothing to upgrade this year's promising team before the deadline. But blame must also fall on the players on the field who have failed to do their jobs at a high level during this collapse.

Let's try to scrounge up some positivity for a second, as difficult as it may be. The Twins' season isn't over just yet. For at least one more day, they still occupy a playoff spot due to their tiebreaker over Detroit. The Twins are headed to Boston for three games this weekend, while the Tigers have a slightly tougher road series in Baltimore. The Twins also hold the tiebreaker over the Royals, so if they could somehow make up two games on Kansas City over this final stretch, they could also get into the playoffs that way.

Here are the final schedules for the three AL Central squads battling for two wild card spots.

Royals (82-71): 3 vs. Giants (74-49), 3 at Nationals (68-84), 3 at Braves (83-70)

Twins (80-73): 3 at Red Sox (76-76), 3 vs. Marlins (56-96), 3 vs. Orioles (85-68)

Tigers (80-73): 3 at Orioles (85-68), 3 vs. Rays (74-78), 3 vs. White Sox (36-117)

By strength of schedule, the Royals have the toughest path and the Tigers have the easiest, though they're not all that different. It feels like the Twins have to find a way to win their series at Fenway Park this weekend and then sweep the Marlins at home, considering how unlikely it is that the historically bad White Sox avoid a season-ending sweep against the Tigers.

The Twins' backs are pressed firmly against the metaphorical wall after a devastating series in Cleveland. Starting on Friday night in Boston, it's now or never for Rocco Baldelli's group if they want to play postseason baseball this year.