Pablo López has once again found another gear for Twins in second half

López showed in August why he's Minnesota's ace.

Aug 30, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws to the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at Target Field. / Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

For the second consecutive year, Pablo López has found his groove in the second half, reminding everyone why he's the Twins' ace and one of MLB's most effective starters when he's at his best.

López pitched 7.2 shutout innings in Friday's 2-0 win over the Blue Jays, extending his scoreless streak to 20.2 over his last three outings. Having lost four games in a row and eight of their last ten, the Twins desperately needed a strong performance from their No. 1 starter — and he delivered.

Last season, after being acquired from the Marlins for All-Star and batting champion Luis Arráez, López got off to a good start before battling some inconsistency in the spring and into June. But he was better in July, locked in with a dominant August, and culminated his outstanding season with a strong September and two excellent playoff starts in October.

From the start of the 2023 season through July 15, López had a 4.24 ERA. From that point through the end of year, playoffs included, he had a 2.50 ERA.

This season has been a similar story. At the All-Star break in mid-July, López had a 5.11 ERA. His stuff was still good, but he was leaving too many pitches over the heart of the plate for home runs and other hard contact. In eight starts since the break, he has a 1.92 ERA that ranks fifth among qualified big-league starters.

In both seasons, López's underlying metrics during his underwhelming first halves indicated that positive regression was likely coming. A pitcher with the stuff and control that he possesses can only struggle for so long. For example, last year, López finished with a 3.66 ERA but had a 3.33 FIP and 3.00 expected ERA. He currently has a 4.05 ERA this year with a 3.67 FIP and 3.50 xERA.

Basically, López hasn't made any major changes from the first half to the second half that have led to the improved numbers. For him, it's all about executing his pitches and continuing to stick to his plan even when the results aren't going his way. If he does that, his true talent level tends to be reflected in the outcomes of his starts before too long.

López is on a roll right now, and the Twins might need it to continue in September. If they're able to hold onto a playoff spot, he'll be a big reason why — and he'll once again take the ball in Game 1 when October rolls around.