Projections high on the Twins having a top-10 pitching staff in 2025

Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews and David Festa present a promising rotation for Minnesota.

Sep 13, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (17) points to third baseman Royce Lewis (not pictured) after a double play against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

How good the Minnesota Twins are in 2025 may be largely dependent on how strong the pitching staff is. And there's optimism that Minnesota will boast one of baseball's best pitching rotations and bullpen in 2025.

According to ESPN's preseason rankings, the Twins' starting staff is ranked seventh in the majors, only ranked behind the Mariners, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Diamondbacks. The projection is based on Minnesota open the season with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews and David Festa.

ESPN's used Ober's development as the blueprint for what the team hopes to do with Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and even Louie Varland.

"Ober's emergence is an example of Minnesota's prowess in this area. A 12th-round draft pick out of the College of Charleston, Ober rose slowly but steadily through the Twins' system. He reached the majors in 2021, making 20 starts but getting to just 92⅓ innings despite decent results," the ESPN article reads.

"He has since ramped up the innings annually without a hit to his per-rata numbers which have gotten better. Last season, Ober reached 178⅔ frames with a career-best 26.9% strikeout rate."

Steamer's projections are also high on the Twins in 2025. The projected ERA+ rankings put the Twins tied with the Tigers and Phillies for the second best rating in the majors, trailing only the Red Sox and Braves. It gives the Twins an ERA+ of 106, which means it projects Twins pitching to be 6% better than league average.

2025 Projected ERA+ By Team - Park Adjusted pic.twitter.com/gARKKljyM8

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) January 1, 2025

Steamer's 2025 projections rank 251 starting pitchers and seven Twins starters rank fairly well, highlighted by Pablo Lopez at No. 11 and Joe Ryan at No. 17.

Starter	ERA	K/9	Rank
Pablo Lopez	3.59	9.44	11
Joe Ryan	3.73	9.99	17
Bailey Ober	4.00	9.26	48
Chris Paddack	4.09	8.24	119
David Festa	3.88	9.36	121
Simeon Woods Richardson	4.66	7.6	146
Zebby Matthews	3.95	8.09	154

What is steamer? It's a system of projections developed by a high school teacher and two of his former students, and the model is employed by FanGraphs. According to MLB.com, Steamer is "widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry."