Simeon Woods Richardson continues to prove Twins won the Jose Berrios trade

Woods Richardson has been outstanding for the Twins in his rookie season.

Aug 21, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson (78) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins traded two-time All-Star starter Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline, the headliner in the return package was Austin Martin, who was the No. 5 overall pick in the previous year's draft. Three years later, it's the other prospect in that deal — pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson — who has made the trade a win for Minnesota.

A remarkable, rather unexpected rookie season for Woods Richardson continued with another very solid performance in Wednesday's victory over the Padres. He threw five innings of one-run ball, striking out seven San Diego hitters as the Twins improved to 15-7 in his 22 starts this year. For the season, SWR has a 3.69 ERA and 99 strikeouts across 112.1 innings pitched. His 2.1 WAR is tied with Joe Ryan for the sixth-best mark on the team, according to Baseball Reference.

SWR, Slider and K Skip. 🙂 pic.twitter.com/pMNzHBGauR

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 22, 2024

Originally a second-round pick by the Mets out of high school in 2018, Woods Richardson was traded to Toronto in 2019 and to Minnesota two years later. He pitched once for the Twins in 2022 and once last season, but this has been the 23-year-old's actual rookie year. He was called up from Triple-A St. Paul to replace Louie Varland in late April and hasn't missed a start since then.

Woods Richardson hasn't been perfect, but he's given the Twins at least five innings in 14 of his 22 starts and has allowed more than three earned runs only three times. Among the seven AL rookie pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings this season, SWR ranks second behind the Yankees' Luis Gil in WAR, ERA, and quality starts.

The Baseball Savant page for Woods Richardson — as well as metrics like his FIP and BABIP — indicates that he's been slightly out-performing his expected stats this season, which suggests regression could be coming. But one thing that's been encouraging is that SWR's fastball velocity has been gradually increasing all season. He even touched 97 MPH a couple times in Wednesday's start. That increased velo aids the effectiveness of his slider and changeup.

Not only did Simeon Woods Richardson add 2-3 mph to his fastball this offseason by working with #MNTwins coaches on mechanical changes, his average fastball velocity has continued to rise each month.

April — 92.8 mph
May — 93.0 mph
June — 93.3 mph
July — 93.4 mph
Aug. — 93.7 mph

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) August 22, 2024

With Ryan likely out for the season, Woods Richardson is in line to be the Twins' No. 3 starter in a playoff series this fall. If they're a wild card team, he could potentially wind up taking the mound in a decisive third game of a first-round matchup.

Meanwhile, Berrios has been merely solid for the Blue Jays this season — he has a 3.79 ERA and 1.8 WAR — at a price of $17.7 million compared to SWR's $630,000. Berrios was good for Toronto after the deadline in 2021, bizarrely bad in 2022, and decently above-average over the past couple seasons. But he's in the middle of a pricey seven-year, $131 million deal and his expected stats this season are much worse than SWR's.

The Blue Jays have been swept in the wild card round in each of the last two postseasons, most recently at Target Field last October. Berrios has made one appearance and thrown a total of three innings in those four games. They're not going to make the playoffs this year, which means there's a good chance Woods-Richardson surpasses Berrios' postseason innings total before 2024 ends.

Martin lost his prospect shine over the last few years and has been mediocre this year as a 25-year-old rookie, posting a .678 OPS in 75 games (though he did have two doubles and three RBI on Wednesday). Nonetheless, Woods Richardson has been more than good enough — at almost zero cost — to declare the Berrios trade a clear victory for the Twins' front office.