Stats suggest Twins might be able to catch Guardians in MLB's second half

The Twins are 4.5 games back from Cleveland in the AL Central, but the Guardians might be catchable.

May 18, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) turns a double play beside Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) in the fifth inning at Progressive Field. / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

At 58-37, the Cleveland Guardians have the best winning percentage in the American League and the second-best mark in Major League Baseball. Heading into the second half, they're 4.5 games ahead of the Twins in the AL Central race. The Guardians have been excellent, and their +85 run differential suggests they aren't a fluke.

However, if you dig a bit deeper into some other numbers, you may find that Cleveland doesn't have the profile of a typical top-five team. A Twitter account called the "MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter," which attempts to determine how lucky teams are based on the expected outcomes of their hitting profiles in a given game, has the Guardians as — by far — the luckiest team in the league this year. The Twins, conversely, are slightly on the unlucky side.

Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest#MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball pic.twitter.com/0Oq3zyM9ok

— MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator) July 14, 2024

Again, the Guardians are a good team, but their roster doesn't exactly scream championship contender. There are only four players in the lineup with an OPS+ above 100: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and David Fry. While the first three are legitimately great hitters, Fry is batting .202 with no homers since June 1 after a hot two-month start. Pitching-wise, with Shane Bieber out for the season, the starting rotation headed by Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively isn't particularly menacing. To be fair, Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase-led bullpen has been strong.

Another stat that could be meaningful in the second half is the Guardians' remaining strength of schedule. They have the second-toughest remaining SOS in baseball, with an opponent winning percentage of .523. The Twins are seventh at .511, but they don't have any games remaining against the Yankees or Dodgers like the Guardians do.

The point is this: Cleveland, which has gone 18-17 since a 40-20 start, might be catchable in the AL Central. The keys for the Twins will be to get (and stay) healthy, perhaps add some pitching before the deadline, and seize the moment in their eight remaining games against the Guardians. This should be a fun second half.