The Dodgers are ruining baseball and the Twins have no chance to compete
Blake Snell has signed a five-year contract to pitch for the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. At what point is Major League Baseball going to implement some sort of fairness doctrine that allows teams like the Minnesota Twins to compete?
Scratch that. "Allows" is a terrible word to describe what's going on. Nobody is forcing the Pohlads to spend half as much as Mark Walter and Magic Johnson are to construct a championship-caliber roster for the Dodgers. Apparently the cliche that "you have to spend money to make money" falls on deaf ears at 1 Twins Way in Minneapolis.
Regardless, the system is a joke. The Twins beating the Yankees or Dodgers or Phillies or any of the big spenders can happen, but it's a David vs. Goliath fairytale, except in this case Goliath will usually win.
A fair analogy for the Twins competing with free and loose, ready-to-spend Dodgers or Yankees is a small town Minnesota high school football team beating a perennial big school state power like Eden Prairie. Yeah, it might happen once every blue moon, but the outcome is usually known before the game is even played.
According to Cots Baseball Contracts, the projected payrolls in 2025 show the Twins at an estimated $142.9 million, which ranks 17th of 30 teams.
After the deal with Snell, the Dodgers' projected payroll is a whopping $305.1 million.
That's more than double Minnesota and more than five times as much as the Athletics.
That's like two Twins rosters for one Dodgers roster. Unfair much?. Look at these projected competitive balance tax payrolls in 2025. Any team that exceeds $241 million will enter the luxury tax threshold.
Team | Projected 2025 CB Tax payroll ($m) |
---|---|
1. Dodgers | $305.1 |
2. Phillies | $275.1 |
3. Padres | $242.1 |
4. Yankees | $231.6 |
5. Astros | $228.1 |
6. Braves | $216.3 |
7. Angels | $181.9 |
8. Blue Jays | $194.5 |
9. Cubs | $182.5 |
10. Rangers | $181.9 |
11. Giants | $174.4 |
12. Mets | $170.8 |
13. Red Sox | $163.9 |
14. Diamondbacks | $161.8 |
15. Cardinals | $157.3 |
16. Mariners | $154.6 |
17. Twins | $142.9 |
18. Royals | $142.4 |
19. Rockies | $135.2 |
20. Brewers | $133.0 |
21. Reds | $113.4 |
22. Guardians | $112.5 |
23. Orioles | $105.6 |
24. Tigers | $97.1 |
25. Pirates | $91.9 |
26. Nationals | $91.1 |
27. Marlins | $79.9 |
28. Rays | $78.7 |
29. White Sox | $73.3 |
30. Athletics | $52.0 |
The Dodgers are rolling out a lineup featuring three former MVPs with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Their starting pitching staff might feature some blend of Ohtani along with Snell, who has a Cy Young award to his name, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshi Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller and Clayton Kershaw.
Heck, the Dodgers are still in the mix for Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki.
MLB's collective bargaining agreement has a luxury tax that they call a competitive balance tax. But the tax doesn't kick in until a team's 40-man roster exceeds $241 million in 2025. Clearly, the Dodgers don't care about paying extreme taxes and surcharges, nor do they care about their future Rule 4 draft picks sliding back 10 spots, because of the overages.
Per Cots, the Dodgers are paying a $102 million luxury tax bill for the 2024 season. That's an unbelievable tax that exceeds the projected 2025 payrolls of seven teams.
Clearly, the system is broken. If the Dodgers are willing to pay a tax penalty over more than $100 million, there's an unfair advantage that even a system designed to create competitive balance is failing to do.
And don't get it wrong, the luxury tax is pricey. In the first year going over the tax, teams pay 20% on every dollar over the threshold. The tax jumps to 30% in the second year and 50% in the third consecutive year.
Major League Baseball is rapidly becoming too similar to European soccer, where the championship teams are known well before the games begin and the lesser teams, like the Twins, need a miracle to compete on the biggest stage. If only a handful of big-spending teams have a realistic chance to win the World Series, why should the non-contenders even take the field?