Twins' best shot at sneaking into playoffs is by passing Royals

While Detroit finishes the season at home against the White Sox, the Royals will be on the road against the Braves. That could open the door for Minnesota.

Sep 22, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli (5) looks over paperwork during the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

As miserable as the past month has been for the Minnesota Twins, the past week has been even more alarming for the Kansas City Royals. On Sunday, the Royals lost a seventh consecutive game, bringing them into a tie with the Detroit Tigers for the second and third wild cards in the American League playoff race.

The Twins are just one game behind the Royals and Tigers, and the Seattle Mariners are lurking just two games back. We've reached the final week of the regular season and the playoff odds for all four teams are extremely fluid, according to Baseball Reference.

Team	Playoff odds
Royals (82-74)	78.6%
Tigers (82-74)	68.4%
Twins (81-75)	41.9%
Mariners (80-76)	10.4%

The Twins are in the enviable position of owning the tiebreakers over the Royals, Tigers and Mariners, so if there's a tie for the final wild-card spot, it's going to go to Minnesota.

The Royals own the tiebreaker over the Tigers and they tied the season series with Seattle 3-3, so if the Royals and Mariners wind up tied for the last wild-card spot it'll be decided on intradivision record, which KC would win unless Seattle finishes 6-0 this week.

Seattle doesn't own the tiebreaker over anyone.

What makes the Royals an easier target for the Twins than Detroit? Simple. The Royals are reeling and they finish the regular season with six games on the road: three against the Nationals Tuesday-Thursday and then three in Atlanta against the Braves Friday-Sunday.

Playing at Atlanta to close the season is tough because the Braves are laying it all on the line in an effort to erase a two-game deficit and clinch one of the two wild-card spots up for grabs in the National League. They're chasing the both the Mets and the Diamondbacks.

Detroit gets to finish the season Friday-Sunday at home against the White Sox, who tied the modern MLB record with 120 losses on Sunday. That's a gift from the baseball gods for the Tigers, who own Major League Baseball's best record since Aug. 11.

Minnesota has six games at home. They play the Marlins Tuesday-Thursday and then host the Orioles Friday-Sunday. If they're lucky, the Orioles will have clinched the top wild card spot and will have nothing to play for by the time they arrive in Minneapolis.

“We have to win on Tuesday,” manager Rocco Baldelli said Sunday after the Twins were swept in a doubleheader against the Red Sox. “[The players] want what’s in front of them. They want the outcome of winning enough games to give ourselves a chance to go to the playoffs. That’s what we’re here for.”