Twins likely headed to Baltimore or Houston if they make the playoffs

Pick your poison: Houston or Baltimore is the likely destination in the first round.

Aug 23, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) rounds third base as Baltimore Orioles third baseman Ramon Urias (29) breaks on a infield hit at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

While it's not a guarantee that the Twins will make the playoffs, if they do find themselves playing baseball in October they'll likely start by playing on the road in a best-of-three series in Baltimore or Houston.

It's highly likely that the last two wild-card spots will be taken by teams in the AL Central. Cleveland is cruising to the finish line as the probable division champ, leaving the Royals, Twins and Tigers scrapping for the last two wild cards.

The loser of the AL East will undoubtedly clinch the top wild card and that looks like Baltimore since they've fallen four games behind New York with 10 games to go. The three division winners, barring something unlikely, will be the Yankees, Guardians and Astros.

Because the Yankees and Guardians are well clear of the Astros, it's probably going to be the Yankees and Guardians getting a first-round bye into the AL Division Series while the Astros host the third wild card and the Orioles host the No. 2 wild card.

If the playoffs started today, it would be Orioles-Royals and Astros-Twins in the opening round.

Baltimore has gone 3-0 against the Twins, but they still have to meet in Minneapolis for the final three games of the regular season next week. The Twins have defeated the Astros in four of six games but they haven't played since early July when Houston was hovering around .500. The Astros also eliminated the Twins from the postseason in both 2020 and 2023.

If you're leading the Twins, would you rather play in Houston or Baltimore? That choice often comes down to which team has more experience and the better starting pitching.

Houston has a ton of postseason experience and their current starting rotation would feature Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi. Verlander (5.20 ERA) isn't the Verlander of old, but Valdez owns baseball's best ERA (1.33) since Aug. 6 and Brown is right behind him at 13th with a 2.36 ERA over the past six weeks. Kikuchi has also pitched well since coming over from Toronto at the deadline.

The Orioles could go with Corbin Burnes, Zack Eflin and Dean Kremer as the starters in a three-game series. Burnes had a rough September but has been elite every other month this season. Eflin has a 2.33 ERA in seven starts since being traded to Baltimore. Kremer is your basic, solid middle of the rotation starter.

It's very much a pick-your-poison scenario, but if Baltimore doesn't find its footing after losing eight of its last 10 games, then they will be the obvious preferred destination for the Twins in the first round of playoff baseball... if Minnesota can hold on and get there.