Updated playoff odds for the Minnesota Twins with 4 games to go

The Twins will know how the Tigers and Royals did before they even take the field Thursday.

Sep 25, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis (23) and first baseman Carlos Santana (30) after defeating the Miami Marlins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Twins did their job by beating the Marlins 8-3 Wednesday night in Minneapolis, but they didn't get any help as the two teams they're chasing — the Royals and Tigers — both won to remain two games ahead with four days left in the regular season.

The Twins play the Marlins at 6:40 p.m. CT Thursday. That's key because the Tigers face the Rays at 12:10 p.m. CT and the Royals are battling the Nationals at 12:05 p.m. CT. That means the Twins will know how far back they are — either 2.5 or 1.5 games behind one or both — by the time they step onto the diamond.

Before any teams play Thursday, the Royals and Tigers are near locks to hang on and clinch the last two wild cards in the American League playoff race. Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs give the Twins about a 1 in 5 chance of pulling off a miracle over the last four days to make the playoffs.

Team	Baseball Reference	FanGraphs
Tigers	93.4%	91.3%
Royals	85.0%	85.7%
Twins	20.4%	21.6%
Mariners	1.2%	1.4%

Pitching is always key and the Twins will be hoping left-hander Patrick Corbin out-pitchers right-hander Michael Wacha in today's game between the Nationals and Royals. The problem is that Corbin has a 6.14 ERA in 22 innings this month while Wacha has a 1.99 ERA in 22 innings this month.

Reese Olson is pitching for the Tigers and he'll be opposed by Rays lefty Tyler Alexander, who helped Tampa beat the Tigers back in April.