Updated playoff odds for the sinking Twins with 5 games to play

The Twins need to beat the Marlins and hope Zack Littell continues his dominant run for the Rays.

Sep 24, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (17) gives the ball to manager Rocco Baldelli after pitching to the Miami Marlins as third baseman Royce Lewis (23) and Carlos Correa (4) look on in the sixth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Twins losing to the Marlins on Tuesday night coupled with the Tigers and Royals winning has put Minnesota's playoff hopes on life support. The only good news the Twins got Tuesday was Seattle losing to the Astros, which keeps the Mariners a half-game behind them.

How dire is the situation? Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are giving the Tigers and Royals near-lock chances to make the playoffs, while the Twins are staring at an 18.2% chance from Baseball Reference and a 27% chance according to FanGraphs.

Team	Baseball Reference	FanGraphs
Tigers	89.9%	87.1%
Royals	84.5%	82.2%
Twins	18.2%	27.0%
Mariners	6.8%	2.9%

Searching for a sliver of hope? Well, the Nationals are sending let-hander DJ Herz to the mound on Wednesday night and nobody in the Royals lineup has ever faced him so that might bode well for the 23-year-old rookie.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have to hit against Rays right-hander Zack Littell. Detroit batters are 8-for-44 lifetime against Littell while slashing .182/.200/.273. Not only that, but Littell has baseball's second-best earned-run average (1.41) since July 27.

Those tidbits are somewhat favorable for the Nationals and Rays, but none of it matters unless the Twins do their job and beat the Marlins at Target Field.