What could the Twins' rotation look like in the playoffs?

Twins have options but also uncertainty when it comes to a potential fourth spot in the rotation.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on Aug. 28, 2024. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are well on their way to the postseason, and while manager Rocco Baldelli likely isn’t focused on that yet with his attention on the task at hand, it won’t be long before he has some decisions to make about his starting rotation in the playoffs. 

The Twins are currently 70-54 — firmly in a wild-card spot and just two games back of the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the American League Central. And as it stands now, the Twins are relying on three rookie pitchers in their starting rotation, and while one is almost assuredly a lock to pitch in the playoffs, the potential fourth spot in a playoff rotation would appear to be up for grabs.

When the Twins faced the Toronto Blue Jays in the wild-card round last playoffs, they started Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray in a two-game sweep. Overall, they had a four-man rotation last postseason, with Bailey Ober starting Game 1 of the divisional against the Houston Astros, Lopez starting Game 2, Gray starting Game 3 and Joe Ryan starting Game 4 of the Twins’ 3-1 series loss.

While Gray is no longer with the ballclub this season, Lopez is firmly in position to start Game 1 of the Twins’ first playoff series this year, whether that’s in the wild-card round or the divisional.

Lopez has been atop the Twins rotation all season, and while he hasn’t put himself in Cy Young contention like he did a year ago, he does still have an 11-8 record, 152 strikeouts, good for 16th in the majors, and a 4.47 earned-run average. Lopez has also gotten better as the year has gone on, posting an 3.90 ERA in July and a 3.18 ERA through three starts so far in August.

With Ryan likely out for the season, that puts Bailey Ober in the second spot of the rotation. Ober has the seventh-most wins in the majors with a 12-5 record, 140 strikeouts and a 3.49 ERA.

Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the three Twins rookies in the rotation, would be likely to keep his third spot in the rotation. Woods Richardson has a 4-3 record this season, 92 strikeouts and a 3.77 ERA. Woods Richardson has seized his opportunity since his early-season call up. 

While the first three spots in a likely four-man playoff rotation seem fairly straightforward, the fourth spot is not so clear. David Festa — also a rookie — is currently the fourth starter in the rotation, but has limited experience with just six career major league starts to his name. 

Zebby Matthews, another rookie who’s currently the fifth starter in the rotation, has even less experience, set to make his second-ever start in the majors Monday night. While they do both lack experience, they’re certainly both options in that fourth spot for the Twins. 

Another young pitcher in Louie Varland would also be on the table to pitch in the postseason. Varland pitched in the playoffs last season out of the bullpen and would be a more experienced option. Chris Paddack is currently on the injured list and could return, too, but could also find himself returning to the bullpen. He missed most of last season but returned to pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs.

In all likelihood, how the remainder of the season plays out will likely be the determinant of how the Twins decide how to approach the rotation in the postseason. And the Twins could put themselves in a more favorable position by passing the Guardians and defending their division crown.

If the Twins did surpass Cleveland in the Central, they'd likely avoid the wild-card round entirely. The Guardians would currently be the No. 2 seed in the American League, and the Twins also have a better record than the AL West-leading Astros. Avoiding the wild-card round could be a benefit to a Twins team facing some uncertainty with its starting rotation as it tightens in October.

But if the season did end now, the Twins would be the No. 5 seed in the American League and would play the No. 4 seed, which would be either the Baltimore Orioles or New York Yankees, who are both currently share the best record in the American League and are tied atop the AL East.