What does Joe Ryan's injury mean for Twins rotation?

The Twins have yet to announce starters for Tuesday and Wednesday's games against the Royals.

Minnesota Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on July 10, 2024. / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Pablo Lopez will start for the Twins in Monday’s series opener against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field in Minneapolis. Who starts Tuesday and Wednesday’s games is yet to be announced.

“We have some things that we need to line up,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said.

The Twins rotation is in a challenging spot with Joe Ryan landing on the 15-day injured list due to a Grade 2 teres major strain. Ryan would typically follow Lopez in the rotation, but he won’t on Tuesday, and the Twins will now have to prepare for life without him for “weeks to months.” 

The Twins are having to figure things out on the fly during the homestand, and there's no guarantee that Ryan will be able to return to the rotation this season. Baldelli has said he isn't yet sure how the rotation will shape up, and the upcoming three-game series against the Royals won't necessarily be an indicator of what the rotation will look like going forward the rest of the season.

Further complicating matters is that the Twins were already down one starter before Ryan in Chris Paddack, who landed on the injured list on July 20 due to a right forearm strain. Paddack is still a ways out from returning, and by the time he does, there is a possibility that it’s to the bullpen. 

What's fairly clear now is that Lopez will remain atop the Twins rotation followed by Bailey Ober, who's made nine consecutive quality starts, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, who has assumed Paddack's spot in the rotation. That's likely not how things will shape up for the upcoming series against the Royals, however, following Friday's doubleheader, and the fifth spot is still up for grabs.

Louie Varland would seem to be the leading contender for the fifth spot in the rotation. Varland was the 27th man for Friday's doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians, and he pitched well in the nightcap, throwing four shutout innings before surrendering a three-run homer in the fifth inning.

Baldelli indicated postgame that he liked the progress Varland has made in Triple-A.

“His offspeed pitches were real factors (Friday), and I think that’s probably the biggest positive adjustment that you can see in the way that he pitched against a lineup that was mostly left-handed,” Baldelli said. “He went out there and used all of his pitches interchangeably.

"The changeup was good, the cutter was good, the bigger breaking ball was good — these pitches are good for him right now. And he’s gotten them into a place where he can use them against good hitters, challenge them, get them out of the zone with two strikes when he needed to.”

As the 27th man for the doubleheader, by rule, Varland had to be returned to Triple-A St. Paul after Friday’s game. Baldelli didn’t rule out that Varland could be back up to the majors sooner than later, but he also didn’t provide any indications that it was a certainty. Everything remains in flux.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said on Friday prospect Zebby Matthews, also currently with Triple-A St. Paul, is another possibility for the rotation moving forward. Matthews has yet to see major league action, but he has rapidly moved from High-A to Triple-A this season. 

In 18 appearances — 17 starts — in the minors this season, Matthews has a 2.60 earned-run average across 97 innings with 114 strikeouts. In four starts since being promoted to the Triple-A Saints, Matthews has posted a 1-2 record with a 5.68 ERA while fanning 23. Varland will likely get a chance at a rotation spot before Matthews, but he’ll likely see action soon — potentially even this week. 

“As we think about the needs for next week, he’s certainly a name we’re talking about. As soon as some time really soon,” Falvey had said on Friday. 

It remains to be seen how things will shake out this week and beyond, but it is clear that the Twins will be relying on their youth to pitch meaningful innings in the starting rotation. Woods Richardson and Festa are two already who started the season in the minors and are now crucial pieces of the rotation.

“I’d say (it’s) challenging, but I mean, all of us are more than ready for the task,” Woods Richardson said of the opportunities for the young starters. “… I have full trust in our guys. I think we want the challenge, I think we want the series like this, so yeah, it’s going to be fun.”