Don't expect a big splash from the Twins before the MLB trade deadline

The Twins seem unlikely to make an aggressive move for a high-end starting pitcher...

Feb 15, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey talks with media at George M. Steinbrenner Field. / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away and the Twins, who sit 4.5 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central, could really use another front-line starting pitcher. Just don't get your hopes up; history suggests that this Minnesota regime is unlikely to make a splashy move for one of the big names who could be dealt before July 30.

As The Athletic's Dan Hayes recently pointed out, the Twins have done better as sellers than buyers in the seven seasons of the Derek Falvey-Thad Levine regime. The best player they've acquired in a win-now deadline move is reliever Sergio Romo, who threw 22.2 solid innings for the Twins after being acquired for Lewin Diaz in 2019. Here are the other deadline moves the Twins have made as "buyers" since 2017:

* 2017: Acquired Jaime Garcia from Atlanta for Huascar Ynoa — and then traded Garcia to the Yankees a week later
* 2019: Traded prospects to the Giants for Sam Dyson, who allowed 9 runs in 11.1 innings before getting hurt and never pitching in the majors again
* 2022: Acquired Jorge Lopez from the Orioles for Yennier Cano and Cade Povich, which was a disaster
* 2022: Acquired Tyler Mahle from the Reds for Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, which was a disaster
* 2022: Acquired Michael Fulmer from the Tigers for Sawyer Gipson-Long, which was…fine

The only move the Twins made at last year's deadline was to send Jorge Lopez to the Marlins for Dylan Floro, who was (predictably) an ineffective non-factor out of their bullpen.

There are several high-end starting pitchers who could get moved at this year's deadline, including Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Nathan Eovaldi. The Twins almost certainly won't land either of the first two, as they would require massive prospect packages and big raises via arbitration over the next couple years. This is an organization that was burned on the Lopez and Mahle deals two years ago — and an ownership group that slashed payroll prior to this season.

If anything, as Hayes reported, the Twins could be "interested in acquiring a rental starting pitcher." Flaherty is the best rental available, but the Tigers will be asking for a lot in return. Eovaldi has a $20 million salary in 2025 that becomes guaranteed if he throws 62 more innings this season. You never know, but the Twins seem unlikely to end up with any of those four big names.

More realistically, Hayes mentioned that the Twins could go after someone like Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi as a rental. The issue is that while such a move wouldn't cost as much in terms of prospect capital, it would also be unlikely to move the needle. Kikuchi has a 4.42 ERA this season and a career 4.66 FIP. He wouldn't be an upgrade over the Twins' current playoff rotation of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, and he might not even be better than 4 and 5 starters Simeon Woods-Richardson and Chris Paddack.

Based on the history of this regime and the ownership's likely unwillingness to add payroll, it would be rather surprising if the Twins made a splashy pitching addition before the deadline. And maybe that's the right move: hold onto your prospects and hope Lopez turns into an ace again in the second half. Maybe it's not. You could also make the argument that the Twins, with this high-powered offense, should put the Mahle flop out of their mind, push their chips into the middle, and try to add someone like Flaherty or Eovaldi.

It's tough to see that happening.